tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15147991560807722432024-03-18T02:14:44.621-05:00Hurricane Hal's Storm Surge BlogWelcome to the world's only storm surge blog!Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12553102291065440914noreply@blogger.comBlogger215125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-87403640671585927822019-10-17T12:35:00.002-05:002019-10-17T12:35:40.391-05:00Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 May Form into TS Nestor and Do More Good than Harm<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 90% chance that Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 will form into Tropical Storm Nestor in the Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to move rapidly to the northeast, spreading wind, rain and storm surge towards the northern Gulf Coast. The center of circulation should arrive along the Florida Panhandle Saturday morning.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145809.shtml?cone#contents"><img border="0" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="789" height="522" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEju0b7O-qRbpc6RxN1IuNUaOJsRiHIFYEXFowXhws3yvtAXqxY-U_SAqcuD3FPKhvdRKIDr8NUjMjdhX8U-Ss6LeZLAIvLnRhs-cbYMobtXsF0y3L9WCgALT8cdiNA_IMITbhqpmc0-oX0/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-10-17+at+11.59.11+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>National Hurricane Center forecast track map for Potential Tropical Cyclone 16, released on Thu Oct 17 at 1000AM CDT.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Rain and wind impacts may be felt in Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, while the Florida Panhandle may also experience some slight coastal flood impacts. Fortunately, Nestor's maximum sustained winds would likely peak around 50 mph, which is not strong enough to inflict substantial damage to buildings. The fast-moving storm would likely generate a minimal storm surge, which should remain below 3 feet.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Precipitation with this system could actually do more good than harm, as the fast-moving storm would likely dump from 1.5 to 3.0 inches of rain across much of the impacted region. The map below shows precipitation potential over the next five days.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1571332062"><img border="0" data-original-height="619" data-original-width="819" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTSDKpRgpwJ1fsI-72H2m0QEoy-urhPgiMVpYu__9Q3d3TWu61F0aBrsV-SfSLNBBNeuyvVtKUGmRPihp5UolHH1_rDMKhlUqCUPcCBT9Ef9ALRmWsi04kCGSJgSoHSI-2el9wVywoKuA/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-10-17+at+12.28.04+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i style="text-align: justify;">Precipitation map valid for the 5-day period from the morning of Thu Oct 17 to Tue Oct 22, from NOAA's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) program. </i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">These precipitation totals may be mostly beneficial, as much of the the southeast U.S. has been under the grip of a severe drought. Some locations in Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and the Florida Panhandle are now classified in extreme drought (shaded red on map below), according to the National Drought monitor. A quick-moving tropical storm will provide much-needed moisture across a broad area of the country that is desperate for rain.</span></div>
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<a href="https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap.aspx"><img border="0" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="878" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDvTeE-c1cOdxcYEcKU6Ul0Mw4NYoKYcwst7VsLNOHOnKw2gQkV98XUcZybPr3cBVOKTFF-C4MXYnRMddlCwvcBkMJNKC7LD6qAoJjj6WiV322nOpVseNV9nk1C4No54J6og7DK6nQUmM/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-10-17+at+12.22.14+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>The National Drought Monitor released on Thu Oct 17, depicts much of the southeast U.S. in severe (dark orange) or exceptional (red) drought.</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">While we hope that this storm will be a blessing and provide much-needed drought relief, the storm's forecasted track should remind us that the eastern Gulf of Mexico, particularly the Florida panhandle and Florida's west coast, are quite vulnerable to tropical cyclone impacts in the month of October. At this time of the year, cold fronts often push off the northern Gulf Coast, causing tropical systems to deflect to the east or northeast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Just last October, category-5 Hurricane Michael made landfall near Panama City, Florida, in a location that may be similar to a landfall location for potential Tropical Storm Nestor. Fortunately, Nestor would have little in common with Michael, and will hopefully do more good than harm.</span></div>
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<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com226tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-60673589941094781162019-09-18T09:41:00.004-05:002019-09-18T10:13:41.857-05:00Flood Event Unfolding along the Upper Texas Coast<br />
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Very serious situation unfolding along the Texas Coast this morning...</div>
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Training of intense thunderstorms will bring flash flooding to areas such as Freeport, Galveston and Beaumont/ Port Arthur...</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihGPRmiWfiisEX1mjDjTtpgnt63GJ3ujOshD4op_REKoJPS-7MPR5p86-czmpKRK_Yes59cA_RwxmIfi1f44xphtCYDV-01ZeXWLZN-CAv98_WWjQwHlOe3kza2W9QPdLHy_IYM2JF-h4/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-09-18+at+6.45.33+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="654" data-original-width="712" height="584" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihGPRmiWfiisEX1mjDjTtpgnt63GJ3ujOshD4op_REKoJPS-7MPR5p86-czmpKRK_Yes59cA_RwxmIfi1f44xphtCYDV-01ZeXWLZN-CAv98_WWjQwHlOe3kza2W9QPdLHy_IYM2JF-h4/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-18+at+6.45.33+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Training of heavy thunderstorm bands along the Upper Texas Coast on Wed Sep 18</i><br />
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DETAILS</div>
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1) Areas from Freeport to Galveston should already have saturated surface soil. Galveston has picked up around 6.5 inches of rain so far as of 0600AM this morning. Training of heavy rain over these areas can produce flash flooding...</div>
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Parts of Sargeant...near Freeport were observing roads under water earlier...</div>
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2) League City/ Friendswood area experienced numerous hours of heavy rain yesterday afternoon and evening, but the training of thunderstorms should be south of you this morning. Nonetheless, some periods of heavy rain could hit you off and on this morning and the ground is already saturated...expect street flooding in heavy rain...</div>
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<i>Flooding in Galveston on Wed Sep 18 near 45th Street and Avenue O....source Sara Asocar Facebook</i></div>
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3) Bolivar/ Chambers County- I have received reports of 5-7" of rain already....the training of heaviest thunderstorms may mostly stay south of you this morning but will lift back up to you this afternoon....ground should be saturated...and periods of heavy rain this morning could quickly produce localized flooding...</div>
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Parts of Hwy 87 were already underwater yesterday from heavy rain and high salt water levels.</div>
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4) Beaumont/ Port Arthur/ Orange Golden Triangle...you've been later to get into the game. As of 0600AM this morning much of the metro area saw only around 2 inches of rain so far. That will change in a hurry this morning, as training of intense thunderstorms could drop 2-3" of rain per hour...</div>
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Even though surface soils are relatively dry, that much rain so quickly can cause flash flooding...</div>
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As I forecast yesterday, the Golden Triangle area could be the bullseye for heaviest rain totals with Imelda....expect very heavy rains and flooding this morning..</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSFoYER4gzfyGf8pS7JMY0JhFEaVtcbIyEo3meOxBTnRayUbQT1HSWRkgLJsYcKGk4Rh-3V8_EDtguEGCE_ev4WRKoNb8h6jFmGUmkKj0LDp380biwXgRBALxKffYz40ARuZJ9vHtyjSY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-09-18+at+9.38.11+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="615" data-original-width="586" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSFoYER4gzfyGf8pS7JMY0JhFEaVtcbIyEo3meOxBTnRayUbQT1HSWRkgLJsYcKGk4Rh-3V8_EDtguEGCE_ev4WRKoNb8h6jFmGUmkKj0LDp380biwXgRBALxKffYz40ARuZJ9vHtyjSY/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-18+at+9.38.11+AM.png" width="604" /></a></div>
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<i>Flooding in Galveston on Wed Sep 18 near 45th Street and Avenue O....source Sara Asocar Facebook</i></div>
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5) Be very careful about many of the graphics/ maps and news reports spreading. Many maps plot out the center of circulation- and this implies that the areas near circulation center are most dangerous. This is not true!</div>
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The center of circulation is near metro Houston now. I marked it with an "L" (low pressure) on the map. However, the training of intense thunderstorms is offset to the south and east of this circulation center.</div>
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I drew arrows where the training of intense thunderstorms are setting up this morning....as you can see it's offset to south and east of center of circulation.<br />
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<i>Updated rainfall forecast for Tropical Storm Imelda</i><br />
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Be careful not to be deceived by reports that say Imelda has weakened or is "only" a tropical depression. These classifications are based on wind speeds, but our biggest hazard here is heavy rain....it doesn't matter how "strong" this storm is...if you see training of intense thunderstorms, flash flooding can happen quickly...it doesn't matter if the storm is a hurricane, tropical storm or tropical depression.</div>
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I think the areas with training of intense thunderstorms could start to lift north through the day today, so League City, Friendswood, Kemah, Pasadena and metro Houston may all see training of thunderstorms later today...for now these areas should expect periods of steady rain with some downpours.</div>
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Stay safe everybody! Please comment on this post to share any local observations of what you are seeing.</div>
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I will try to send another update later.</div>
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-HH</div>
Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com27tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-40334709151029291782019-09-17T09:31:00.003-05:002019-09-17T09:44:39.545-05:00Disturbance to Bring Substantial Rain to Upper Texas Coast and Metro Houston<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">BIG PICTURE</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">- A disturbance will bring heavy rain to the Upper Texas Coast and Metro Houston area from Tuesday- Thursday, bringing drought relief but causing localized street flooding;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">- We should not expect flood levels to approach anything similar to hurricanes Harvey (2017) or Ike (2008);</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">- Storm surge levels should remain from 1.5 - 2.5 feet...producing minor coastal flooding and impeding the drainage of heavy rainfall;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">- Rainfall totals could exceed 8" in much of the Houston-Galveston metro area and exceed 6" in the Beaumont- Port Arthur - Orange metro area. Thunderstorms could produce as much as 2-3" of rain per hour...be careful if driving near flooded areas especially at night.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">IN DETAIL</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A disturbance approaching the western Gulf coast will bring substantial rain to the Upper Texas Coast and Metro Houston from Tuesday through Thursday. While this system will bring much-needed drought relief, areas of prolonged heavy rainfall could lead to street flooding and creeks/ bayous running over their banks.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.weather.gov/lch/"><img border="0" data-original-height="545" data-original-width="726" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLFyvvJ9WzU71Q0bfx665I28rXp9WgVH0zQK9CUGZKcpmqQSg5JbjgNbyyk3m9s5mwQZUy0rXamcVSKsNjSxg4qfwtvvoavP6R3QmKU0T_MEihfkD3VYAw3xiJzBsFSSjF4xxJUNRnBas/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-17+at+9.06.55+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Rainfall map from the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, Louisiana</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">The rainfall is associated with an upper level low pressure area. The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 30% chance that this system will develop a surface low and become a named tropical storm before it moves ashore. Whether it officially becomes a tropical storm or not, the main impact will be prolonged heavy rain.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">The rainfall map above, provided by the National Weather Service Office in Lake Charles, Louisiana, forecasts more than 8" of rain possible for the Houston-Galveston corridor and Bolivar Peninsula, with 4-6" generally expected in the Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange metro area.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.weather.gov/hgx/"><img border="0" data-original-height="557" data-original-width="604" height="590" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHyy4JctzuKK8p11t9JNWRO1FMctGR2mugiQdOS1w1y440XpEF9wNFyxw_FOOL9zN-_MyXkgDPcddTyf2AZMQ50CDikCyGmJW9fIp_UXP75hK-eQdl6-CG15BGFZnazT9Gz0KhPnX99fU/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-17+at+9.36.51+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Tuesday morning weather radar shows widespread rain has already moved into coastal areas.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Some of the early banding of this system seems to indicate rainfall estimates may be higher than forecast for Beaumont-Port Arthur-Orange metro area, and I would not be surprised if some locations in that region observe rainfall amounts exceeding 6 inches.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Prolonged 15-25 mph winds from the southeast will generate minor coastal flooding along the Upper Texas Coast and Southwest Louisiana. Water levels at the Galveston North Jetty tide gauge have already exceeded 2 feet above normal astronomical tides. In general, we should expect storm surge levels to remain between 1.5 - 2.5 feet above normal for the next several days.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The graphic below, from NOAA Tides and Currents, shows the difference between observed (red) water levels and predicted (blue) water levels at Galveston North Jetty. We can see the prolonged nature of this "minor" coastal flood event.</span></div>
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<a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8771341"><img border="0" data-original-height="404" data-original-width="1117" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhc6LYID-f52tQfZvOVBGKYrNTxcMtz0xpRxjANxcrM4XKDAWU1PmTFLtK3ufFPupHETecKkrjlhf24pLSlop8EnJVoPf0eWzedGD1i3RN2IroobWxpih1TmEYVUH5S-KRa8d1ZivfIl3s/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-17+at+9.17.52+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Water level graph for Galveston North Jetty, from NOAA Tides and Currents</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">While this amount of flooding will bring saltwater over some beaches and a few low spots on coastal roads, the biggest impact of a long-duration storm surge event like this comes from "compound flooding", as elevated salt water levels impede the drainage of heavy rainfall.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Elsewhere in the tropics, Hurricane Humberto is tracking to the east-northeast and may impact Bermuda this week. The only impact to the U.S. coast should be higher than normal surf and rip currents along the eastern seaboard.</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="841" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHq9-qB_ZLEuQSFzkK-3DKdMN0Yj_wHZzPZzEjcAlcUHwLxAzeX-iTfOAexUpSTREHjkPe1em1OLRsWXKhHlmvnyJwVW4r1hpgMcFWisy7SdoZnCxcfYzyNbxP_xWG2GaUX2ctBkOofHg/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-17+at+9.27.43+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>The five-day graphical tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The National Hurricane Center forecasts a 90% chance that a disturbance between the Caribbean and Africa will develop into a tropical storm within the next 48 hours. It would be named Tropical Storm Imelda, but it will most likely track east of the United States.</span></div>
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<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-81072602873444056582019-09-13T09:34:00.002-05:002019-09-13T09:36:15.479-05:00TS Humberto Likely to Form- Could Bring Flooding Rains to SE United States<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 is likely to form into Tropical Storm Humberto near the Bahamas and track towards the Florida coast. As of 0800AM EDT on Fri Sep 13, the National Hurricane Center forecasts an 80% chance that this low pressure system, which is now centered near the Bahamas, will develop into a tropical storm within 48 hours and a 90% chance that it will develop within the next five days. The disturbed area is now named "Potential Tropical Cyclone 9", but will be named Humberto if it becomes a tropical storm.</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/"><img border="0" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="815" height="470" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQm1e5Bjr0BDepprDgANMc0RA0_l94lQcuiWyoBNjwgZm_Nbb3lWqQP_RKDLaCtf6dux6PpUvNMARZ3W_gdCw-9Wyih6qG7FXdr0rLMEHKEhJMl9WWTqN4KCgtQ2jE_mrbA0qyhDZ3nSE/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-13+at+9.49.42+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center. Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 shown with a red X.</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">The best track forecast from the National Hurricane Center depicts a tropical storm approaching Florida's east coast, and then tracking from south to north very close to the coastline....a track quite similar to Hurricane Dorian's last week. However, until this system forms a center of circulation, we should expect storm track and intensity forecasts to change considerably.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The biggest concern with this system is the forecast stall near the Florida/ Georgia/ South Carolina coastline from Monday through Tuesday morning. If this forecast verifies, it could mean prolonged flooding rain for portions of the Southeast U.S. next week.</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/"><img border="0" data-original-height="652" data-original-width="792" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUXW_3OL8ZwfzM_0NbPmV-R3zTSDU5AsXJJYKRQenbggUqrbckw3F7P5tdfAfq1jzkOq7eTIndsGvjtdMedgh4xVcOc0HfPyAZ1BxNJPbPNumiZ6spk4_yL0c_qvfDUsfy0her_HL4WJw/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-13+at+10.04.09+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>National Hurricane Center best track forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclone 9, as of Fri Sep 13 at 0800AM EDT</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Most of the GFS (American) model tracks have shifted east over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, most ensemble members forecast Humberto to form and track into the Gulf of Mexico, but today most tracks forecast Humberto to form and track into the Florida Peninsula.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">After tracking back out to sea before reaching Georgia, the GFS best track stalls the system in the Atlantic and forecasts the system to stall and then retrograde back towards the U.S. coastline close to North Carolina. Several models over the past two days have agreed with this idea...supporting a big picture of building high pressure over the Atlantic pushing potential Humberto back towards land after tracking into the Atlantic.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#95L"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="688" height="614" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcj4mVPhO65YrBv33ZwC-shYHTk2QPFXLPIA87X1IUO8pNbrN6X-KgXKs2VxOId9-8sj13yUx6udrjEqVOUU2NqcNF-dH63Y4V0uJKU5PYZ0XyS5wvCJwJoAL6G8LJXTjvi00XcqfyLPk/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-13+at+10.02.25+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>GFS ensemble models for Potential Tropical Cyclone 9- image from Tropical Tidbits</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">We should not focus on the details or exact track of such forecasts at this point, but keep in mind the big picture....it is possible that a tropical storm could form, potentially strengthen into a hurricane and impact the southeast U.S. The idea that this storm could possibly track out to sea and then be pushed closer to the coast again means that people north of the Carolinas should pay attention to this storm, as there is a possibility it could impact areas from the Chesapeake Bay to New England.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxdKjszNWYMUMoZoZbBLWfE8r2wJSo1w9z38xkBl15blHFOCAB8LVf_S-hspiA_zeNkakVUpAEvsMTIpjl_tI_L0M9Hw3aMnehScUPGCSChz0UgPm8vWiFAJIbu9HIWbUGAiwMDq_oUuA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-09-13+at+10.02.52+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="717" data-original-width="689" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxdKjszNWYMUMoZoZbBLWfE8r2wJSo1w9z38xkBl15blHFOCAB8LVf_S-hspiA_zeNkakVUpAEvsMTIpjl_tI_L0M9Hw3aMnehScUPGCSChz0UgPm8vWiFAJIbu9HIWbUGAiwMDq_oUuA/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-13+at+10.02.52+AM.png" width="614" /></a></div>
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<i>Global and hurricane model forecast runs for Potential Tropical Cyclone 9</i></div>
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<i>Image: Tropical Tidbits</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Most of the global and hurricane models depict this disturbed area to track to the northwest but remain offshore, then curve to the northeast and track off </span><span style="font-size: large;">the Atlantic seaboard. Many of these models predict future conditions out to 120 hours, so they do not yet forecast what could happen past next Wednesday.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Marine Weather and Climate, Flood Information Systems and the U-Surge Project have initiated the first Hazard Area Likeliness (HAL) map for potential wind and flood hazards associated with this storm.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeSHxkbG5Fifg1GwI-uEbuJAlbZoIdpouRKuoTiBH0NzHT_jWR4fIi1OA9WkcQwH_EX2UplmBiKpn0yf1FWOZUYZ4w_iXTtE1Kq90upc01RJiKfKMJO7JyAS5oqDLea8FKHZtwrVP7o9I/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-09-13+at+10.28.38+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="943" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeSHxkbG5Fifg1GwI-uEbuJAlbZoIdpouRKuoTiBH0NzHT_jWR4fIi1OA9WkcQwH_EX2UplmBiKpn0yf1FWOZUYZ4w_iXTtE1Kq90upc01RJiKfKMJO7JyAS5oqDLea8FKHZtwrVP7o9I/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-13+at+10.28.38+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This map depicts that the biggest threat right now appears to be flooding from heavy rainfall. The HAL index forecasts the possibility of moderate damage from rainfall exceeding 8 inches from Mayport (near Jacksonville Beach, Florida) through Wrightsville Beach, NC. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The possibility of moderate wind damage for the Mayport/ Jacksonville Beach area has also been added to this map.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Expect these forecasts to change considerably in the next 24-48 hours until a center of circulation forms and we have a named storm. All interests along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. should monitor the progress of this storm.</span></div>
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<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-79573302141772267572019-09-12T10:30:00.000-05:002019-09-13T08:46:34.131-05:00Tropical Storm Humberto Could Form and Approach Florida This Weekend<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">A broad area of showers and thunderstorms centered over the Southern Bahamas has an increasing chance of developing into a tropical storm over the next 48 hours. This area, now classified as INVEST-95L, will likely track towards Florida.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=95L&product=ir"><img border="0" data-original-height="845" data-original-width="1200" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgb3LJvkBNLdPt1TDsBvSFu3CfGqP2GorjEmpq__II-skr7GvKzdsI2wASo3tYZkcA-rzoj49yLpbYMDKW5kl8VkFbl5T91509TE_UgbqPxnr0p9rWAMsmWBAJGfTV-2a1ZGcdsgI4e4s/s640/IR_SATELLITE.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Infrared satellite image of Invest-95L on the morning of Thursday, September 12. </i></div>
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<i>Image: Tropicaltidbits.com</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The National Hurricane Center forecasts that this area has a HIGH chance of developing into Tropical Storm Humberto, with the chance of development at 70% in the next 48 hours and 80% in the next five days.</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/"><img border="0" data-original-height="605" data-original-width="818" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0Cg3X-s1exeoadZFczk6JYwn6IJ2K1CkA-aDEa6KoycsEzZcCiuMuH-X2lbqrHDb0xjlNmihoQ-IsE9NJ6dnM2LRgZiUO_Mimi4A-bsgB7GWkW8DpAL7M7LIHwCu892y5uVx7N1sCYU8/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-12+at+11.07.48+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>National Hurricane Center Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Atmospheric models differ considerably on the potential track for Humberto, with the GFS/ American model forecasting a track that takes the storm farther west, towards the Gulf of Mexico, and the European model and others forecasting a track along Florida's east coast, and perhaps the eastern seaboard.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The GFS model tracks are shown on the map below. All of these tracks are for the same model...different tracks are forecast by slightly adjusting the initial conditions, like storm position and pressure, to initialize, or begin the model forecast.</span></div>
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<img border="0" data-original-height="662" data-original-width="691" height="612" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTZhdAqohfqJvx0iRqqCR4s-gkHCVeWad66wE6m_GSbhNzDDshCuHPI-IOn0NQ5mZ6E9Gic15VPfzHQsU4YEcwCD90Cr-lN0zhvNfk_bB2F17MHCPYPv1UFKyHhXliKBU-U5rOR2JXLIw/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-12+at+11.13.39+AM.png" width="640" /><a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/95L_gefs_latest.png">https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/95L_gefs_latest.png</a></div>
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<i>GFS model ensemble tracks for Tropical Storm Humberto</i></div>
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<i>Image: www.tropicaltidbits.com</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The tracks for global and hurricane models are shown below. In general, most of these model runs forecast Humberto to track towards Florida's east coast if it develops. </span></div>
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<a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/95L_tracks_latest.png"><img border="0" data-original-height="693" data-original-width="665" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgf-IDW5GUEbXjXU9YEOJ3O38Om-L18CVnHzXvCsFQbSM-PXb6X_lHj8y5H-B1NIFR81YbkCmumPEGVID_iGrOrc5c6-59N1HSR-EXPWoS0jlErHdZj2fg-xz4N9O-70T_cR7i4L_GyOY/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-12+at+11.12.25+AM.png" width="614" /></a></div>
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<i>Global and Hurricane model tracks for Tropical Storm Humberto</i></div>
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<i>Image: www.tropicaltidbits.com</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Regardless of the exact track, windy, rainy weather should be expected in Florida over the weekend and possibly into early next week. NOAA's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) rainfall maps support this general idea, as 5-day precipitation totals are forecast to exceed 3 inches in parts of Florida and Georgia.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">We should not focus on the exact locations of this precipitation forecast, but rather focus on the big picture. At this point it appears that some locations in Florida, and possibly along the Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S., are likely to observe heavy rain in the next five days.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1568301516"><img border="0" data-original-height="621" data-original-width="819" height="484" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg50sq-uM0SNiauNCP34cvamwFQ9Vej-QIGQzsDG9VOOT28qelDV942UA0tVQTVHWQKSVbdFLiCsSnimYYj6I7Bv2KIZJkMFyTVlpxuBed4kEF2QSO-UmL_U2y8XOwzbGyebIuXUmGWOcw/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-12+at+11.19.02+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>NOAA's QPF Rainfall Forecast Map depicts rainfall potential for the next 5 days</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Stay tuned for more updates and keep in mind that track forecasts are likely to change considerably until a low-level circulation center develops. Yesterday evening's EURO model predicted that Humberto would develop into a hurricane and track up the Eastern Seaboard. This possibility is not out of the question...nor is potential hurricane development in the Gulf.</span></div>
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Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-79139370309899142432019-09-11T10:29:00.000-05:002019-09-11T10:37:57.116-05:00Potential for Heavy Rainfall Flooding Increasing for Northern Gulf Coast/ Southern Mississippi Valley<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">The potential for heavy rainfall flooding is increasing for the Northern Gulf Coast and Southern Mississippi Valley later this weekend and early next week.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">An area of disturbed weather north of Hispaniola is forecast to track to the west-northwest and approach Florida. The National Hurricane Center gives a 60% chance of tropical storm development in the next five days, particularly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTKUDiUHZNH9hLbyrgve1I4EEzYlgjuC9f4NjqOoarZ8QcpYtPfI3fGckvsx9zzfZuFK_nr-eK-nU-6DRhXeaGpx8QM4aUOy-oEUIc6ziamCFkKIZAgL8GkR1yGvRchbbmj1mtt5CSlOk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-09-11+at+11.17.41+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="491" data-original-width="664" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTKUDiUHZNH9hLbyrgve1I4EEzYlgjuC9f4NjqOoarZ8QcpYtPfI3fGckvsx9zzfZuFK_nr-eK-nU-6DRhXeaGpx8QM4aUOy-oEUIc6ziamCFkKIZAgL8GkR1yGvRchbbmj1mtt5CSlOk/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-11+at+11.17.41+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The major hazard associated with this system will be prolonged heavy rainfall. The Euro model predicts this system will slow down considerably as the storm center tracks over the Florida Panhandle and Alabama, while the GFS predicts an extended stall as the system is centered near coastal Louisiana.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Both of these scenarios would spread torrential rain over multiple states for a prolonged period. Locations from Louisiana through Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, including Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee should closely monitor this system.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDBOZsA-n4uZrOStJw8PdJo3Ldbfg4CNa2-l3gFl3_0dbqGAHL_BRw4cKw4V7C1UJ2pUOiVX0Yc4A-gBlTnGx5B01jiJzXtFHovi3Uc8OA0WkkCdzaXDHtkjJTz5RQGHG2IYE-_CKs96Y/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-09-11+at+11.26.58+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="586" data-original-width="682" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDBOZsA-n4uZrOStJw8PdJo3Ldbfg4CNa2-l3gFl3_0dbqGAHL_BRw4cKw4V7C1UJ2pUOiVX0Yc4A-gBlTnGx5B01jiJzXtFHovi3Uc8OA0WkkCdzaXDHtkjJTz5RQGHG2IYE-_CKs96Y/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-11+at+11.26.58+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Keep in mind that a storm becomes "named" based on one metric alone- that maximum sustained winds reach 39 miles per hour. (The system must also have closed circulation and be tropical in nature). But the presence of a name tells us nothing about flood potential. Even if this storm remains unnamed, it has the potential to inflict widespread flooding, especially along the northern Gulf Coast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Just three years ago an "unnamed" storm stalled in this region of the country and dumped more than 30 inches of rain in southeast Louisiana. We will continue to monitor this system for future development.</span></div>
Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-84301237827831506162019-09-10T08:30:00.001-05:002019-09-11T10:20:30.217-05:00Peak of Hurricane Season Arrives as We Watch Three Systems for Development<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Here we are at September 10th, the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Climate records indicate that nearly one named storm exists per year at this time on the calendar. Another way to look at this statistic is that in 100 years of climate records, we would expect nearly 100 named storms to have existed around this date.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/peakofseason.gif"><img border="0" data-original-height="491" data-original-width="745" height="420" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhv9_DJH8AznPcE3_geWBOYvg6CwVyTwAFV44OgU7Ur0ajvQL3ivuRfK9OMCbkII9nU_Ho8Ws-WPF9Zypmekex5kdWVSnb9cDwHZwCM4kzf56wraWZI_VD0aS7FYkZsaVFID0VrSvGqvms/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-09+at+8.52.14+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>This graph shows the frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms over 100 years. <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/peakofseason.gif">Source: NOAA</a></i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">The graphic above shows the number of named storms per 100 years and depicts a strong seasonal influence on hurricane activity, with the busiest period of Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity occurring from mid-August to mid-October. A strong peak is visible around September 10.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">So we shouldn't be surprised that we are watching three areas of disturbed weather for potential tropical development over the next five days.</span> </div>
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<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/"><img border="0" data-original-height="507" data-original-width="647" height="500" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj4T0ik8xdVi-b98GygKcYz8zF70bHTCLRxeJrYrRH0FjnaWTG1ud88jV915BkQ_EDwVaQ2eY6ZnU3CUf5Gv2gF4mTy5-0DZVLljLpNQNdAEdxPH8pOXzeIQFbXSnBWGLd_QbKa5PMLC8/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-10+at+9.01.16+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i><a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/">National Hurricane Center</a> map of potential tropical development over the next five days.</i></div>
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<i>Text added by Hal Needham.</i></div>
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<span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">The area of greatest concern is centered north of Hispaniola. This system is forecast to move to the west-northwest and approach the Bahamas/ Florida and then move into the Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this system into a named storm is unlikely over the next several days, the National Hurricane Center forecasts a 30% chance of development in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.</span></span></div>
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<span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Regardless of development into a named storm, this system has ample moisture and should bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast over the weekend. <a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1568119485">NOAA's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF)</a> provides rainfall estimates that could exceed three inches from the Bahamas through the Northern Gulf Coast, including areas near the Florida Peninsula, over the next seven days.</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1568119485"><img border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="819" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizUQuE9b6g1rTL8sdVurgom8wsqMrP9r-OSxbk2vXzrFS76xPnu4fsxT4SJXjBUPUEeqLwfQbD8WKMrNHWkME4cB8u59AL9lQODuHohcFcwIsFILotf66m2bHpmniYeG71NRzd4HEqygM/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-09-10+at+8.50.55+AM.png" width="640" /></a><span style="text-align: justify;"><i>NOAA's QPF map forecasts 3+ inches of rain could fall near the Northern Gulf Coast over the next seven days. Link: </i></span><a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1568119485">https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1568119485</a></div>
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<span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">Stay tuned for more updates as we track this system.</span></span></div>
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<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-5151880586370944822019-09-02T07:07:00.001-05:002019-09-02T07:07:19.117-05:00Follow me in Hurricane DorianFollow me in Hurricane Dorian on my Facebook page...<br />
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<a href="https://www.facebook.com/hal.needham.796">https://www.facebook.com/hal.needham.796</a><br />
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We have launched the Hazard Area Likeliness (HAL) Map at this site:<br />
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<a href="https://www.u-surge.net/hurricane-dorian.html">https://www.u-surge.net/hurricane-dorian.html</a><br />
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This product provides updated likeliness of wind and flood hazards for 24 cities...Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-776382353078577462019-08-30T10:32:00.001-05:002019-08-30T12:24:18.687-05:00Hurricane Dorian Threatens to Inflict Long-Duration and Complex Flood Event<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">KEY MESSAGES</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1) Hurricane Dorian threatens to inflict a long-duration flood event that will begin with saltwater storm surge flooding near and north of the landfall area;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2) Dorian's slow motion near and after landfall will exacerbate coastal flooding and erosion, while creating a "compound" flood event. Torrential rain will have nowhere to drain as a long-duration saltwater flood pushes inland;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3) Places that have never flooded before may experience deep water and a second flood hot-spot may develop several days after landfall in places like Jacksonville, Savannah and Charleston.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5AMLH2sl5jxFI-YIGFQzC5cP5G06YwfcXLkjZgbolTF9mLXGnps8AinlIBjymqqF4ancxn3tbU-Oz7CKPBFGvOXPWrB2smNIfWaPJPJG8poJUEP2cghuYnnRHb7lKd2QQLISkP_rvZyc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+7.23.29+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><i><img border="0" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="449" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5AMLH2sl5jxFI-YIGFQzC5cP5G06YwfcXLkjZgbolTF9mLXGnps8AinlIBjymqqF4ancxn3tbU-Oz7CKPBFGvOXPWrB2smNIfWaPJPJG8poJUEP2cghuYnnRHb7lKd2QQLISkP_rvZyc/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+7.23.29+AM.png" width="612" /></i></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Dorian shows a strengthening storm on Friday morning. Source: <a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/">CIMSS Tropical Cyclones</a></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">DORIAN'S COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Hurricane Dorian threatens to inflict a long-duration flood event beginning with saltwater storm surge flooding near and north of the landfall area. Massive ocean swells and waves should precede the arrival of destructive winds, and some coastal erosion could begin more than 24 hours before landfall.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">With continued uncertainty in Dorian's track, we cannot pinpoint the exact region that will observe the worst coastal flooding. However, we can develop a general sense of storm surge potential by looking back at several hurricanes from the past.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">BASIC OVERVIEW OF COASTAL FLOODING</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;"><br />Before we look at those historical hurricanes, let's touch base on the basics of storm surge and coastal flooding. A storm surge is an abnormal rise in saltwater at the coast caused by low air pressure and strong onshore winds in severe storms. </span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">The image below shows how storm surge and waves can inundate an area and push far inland. (Image: <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/images/stormsurgevsstormtide.jpg">NOAA/ The Comet Program</a>).</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiKTWcJ7CPYopkAz8L5LWSad8ErdwcqO70vG5TfFYioPDBNuzOg_QrGLqHWSS0G6jrGzEy9jJEAY6OUQpneHrt0Gq6Mhmi0Lf62Mlk2PEp_wRAoh4tE51dhFVoU8LAmHgoFx7QOIaU15A/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+9.01.55+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="253" data-original-width="539" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiKTWcJ7CPYopkAz8L5LWSad8ErdwcqO70vG5TfFYioPDBNuzOg_QrGLqHWSS0G6jrGzEy9jJEAY6OUQpneHrt0Gq6Mhmi0Lf62Mlk2PEp_wRAoh4tE51dhFVoU8LAmHgoFx7QOIaU15A/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+9.01.55+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Water strikes objects with more force than wind, so as you can imagine, buildings quickly collapse under incessant pounding of sea water. In more severe cases, buildings can be gutted or washed away without a trace.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Consider the two pictures below that I took last October in Mexico Beach, Florida. I took these photos in exactly the same location (my feet are in the same position looking in the same direction). I took picture #1 on Tuesday morning and picture #2 on Saturday morning. In between these two photos, Hurricane Michael blasted Mexico Beach with a 15-foot storm surge that gutted coastal buildings.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUTW2RDteuJ-V2MLwNcBR3Ywnqqex9s6xEWA0kboQrYzxy8Dl_VRIacCgM2OyjmRC7M2lToCduKzVOJaglWaJXr1zCHBNlriDHCP7HMfVGYS4HqqleTwfjYi-wEAc69HoVBCtn2ydpJgk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+6.54.27+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="477" data-original-width="691" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUTW2RDteuJ-V2MLwNcBR3Ywnqqex9s6xEWA0kboQrYzxy8Dl_VRIacCgM2OyjmRC7M2lToCduKzVOJaglWaJXr1zCHBNlriDHCP7HMfVGYS4HqqleTwfjYi-wEAc69HoVBCtn2ydpJgk/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+6.54.27+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><i>"Before" picture in El Governor Hotel, Mexico Beach, FL. Tue Oct 9, 2018. Photo: Hal Needham</i></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkMlZgu36BqrIWapiNUgLodYU3aiyK4Bv0DaSYHn4edf8GRmTkh-4GkPek0ekuTMaOP4t-1sUG9V1lLHTMEBQaMnGzUpKF2XR2Fokd5OLGplkyPzalE2jea5gM_D7Nuq1E7a6KsRe_ouw/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+6.54.14+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="584" height="484" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkMlZgu36BqrIWapiNUgLodYU3aiyK4Bv0DaSYHn4edf8GRmTkh-4GkPek0ekuTMaOP4t-1sUG9V1lLHTMEBQaMnGzUpKF2XR2Fokd5OLGplkyPzalE2jea5gM_D7Nuq1E7a6KsRe_ouw/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+6.54.14+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i><span style="font-size: large;">"After" picture in El Governor Hotel, Mexico Beach, FL. Sat Oct 13, 2018. Photo: Hal Needham</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">My post-storm view from the south-facing stairwell in the same building showed chewed-up roadway and concrete slabs where large houses stood just a few days earlier.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXAfvMZHPUmQNotEu_kuTSVyef3plXTjq0H2DOxFpwLPDqKgZphDtzQuEy9aU5z4ISNKk07zp0-ktvUiM_zk82PGpJ0O4luEyJHXzfWIv9hrP41t4EJ12CQfVRUe5Ubly0Csv_SePuXEs/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+6.54.45+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="477" data-original-width="636" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXAfvMZHPUmQNotEu_kuTSVyef3plXTjq0H2DOxFpwLPDqKgZphDtzQuEy9aU5z4ISNKk07zp0-ktvUiM_zk82PGpJ0O4luEyJHXzfWIv9hrP41t4EJ12CQfVRUe5Ubly0Csv_SePuXEs/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+6.54.45+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Another view of Mexico Beach, Florida, shows slabs where large homes once stood. Testimony to the power of storm surge. Photo taken October 13, 2018 by Hal Needham.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">We often think of hurricanes as wind events, in part because it's difficult to document the destructive force of storm surges and live to tell the story! In reality, flooding from storm surge and heavy rain are responsible for 88% of deaths in hurricanes and tropical storms (<a href="https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/hurricanes-tropical-storms-us-deaths-surge-flooding">Erdman 2019</a>). </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Initially, Dorian is forecast to approach Florida's coast as a slow-moving, category-4 hurricane. The slow movement will prolong the storm surge flooding, enable saltwater to push far inland, and give angry waves more time to erode sand dunes and other coastal protection.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">HISTORICAL STORMS FOR REFERENCE</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: large;">A few historical storms provide context for Dorian's storm surge potential. Let's look at two major (cat 3+) hurricanes that both impacted Palm Beach County...the 1947 hurricane and Hurricane Jeanne in 2004.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">THE 1947 HURRICANE</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">The 1947 made landfall as a category-4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 132 mph (115 knots). The storm tracked to the west-southwest upon approach and made landfall between Pompano Beach and Hollywood.</span></div>
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<a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/"><img border="0" data-original-height="503" data-original-width="683" height="470" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheXt6ZG4gKCr0aIxiiFrSuLTEV8lNMXsGnMwiLHfOfdr1fI1aNGgbNyhIcBFHDDzTu7IlxxMIpqyXgLmBXVD2zt-8elxtXA2TFisw5st6RUwHEVGMZEMpAm0xy2t5W_v0ava8W3YNE9YU/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+6.40.11+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Track of the 1947 Hurricane, courtesy NOAA.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> This storm generated an 11-foot storm surge at Hillsboro Lighthouse, Boynton Beach and Palm Beach (<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Floridas-Hurricane-History-Jay-Barnes/dp/0807847488">Barnes 1998</a>). This means the saltwater rose to 11 feet higher than it would have been had there not been a hurricane.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This is the highest storm surge level on record in Palm Beach County. Dig deeper into this local flood history at the <a href="https://www.u-surge.net/palm-beach.html">Palm Beach County U-Surge Page</a> that I just launched this morning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The photo below depicts damage from this storm to the Seacrest Hotel in Delray Beach. Note the effect of scouring from the storm surge and powerful waves.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.floridamemory.com/items/show/38352"><img border="0" data-original-height="389" data-original-width="598" height="414" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZTSHglUcPHI8T8aCue4xj0IjQVhFiFeAb1ZLWBWd_HbixHb7v9iyXFG9jaVhEXOu2yRyGyUHdcy1Gd98nWMf0wx50OQnYBIqD5YNypEVQcQWMZXWOweHPbAqv8Q7kXehDTUEMMnVSEjA/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+7.28.34+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The 1947 hurricane was not only a powerful hurricane, but also geographically large. This large wind field enabled the hurricane to generate a high and extensive storm surge.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/mwr/1947.pdf">Monthly Weather Review from 1947</a> reads, "<i>Winds of 100 m.p.h. or over were experienced generally along the Florida east coast from the northern portion of Miami to well north of Palm Beach, a distance of about 70 miles, while winds of hurricane force prevailed from approximately Cape Canaveral to Carysfort Reef Light, a distance of about 240 miles.</i>"</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I created the map below to show the track of this hurricane, as well as the swath of peak storm surge levels, shown on the map in orange, reaching from 8-12 feet (peak surge was 11 feet).</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.u-surge.net/"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1200" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQTHZDVN3N6e8kaTYdPp6UWth4M5sFYoBSqm8l2vQJFWg1K7cylmPxHsRJhyphenhyphenskgcKG69YsGV-jtfF9Mw76d7iQJkKYttHrd-E6iwGPpeRYNpeuD_8BWxZMPmJrBjEJTzUAT6zo5ToFbvE/s640/Plot_1947_160824.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">HURRICANE JEANNE (2004)</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Hurricane Jeanne approached the Florida coast as a category-3 hurricane with maximum winds of 121 mph (105 knots). The storm made landfall north of Palm Beach, near Port St. Lucie.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Not only was Jeanne less powerful than the 1947 hurricane, but the wind field was considerably smaller. Whereas the diameter of hurricane-force winds reached 240 miles in the 1947 Hurricane, they only reached 138 miles (120 nautical miles) in Hurricane Jeanne (<a href="http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/research/tropical_cyclones/tc_extended_best_track_dataset/">Demuth et. al 2006</a>).</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL112004_Jeanne.pdf">Lawrence and Cobb (2005)</a> comment on Jeanne's relatively small size by stating, "Maximum winds at landfall are estimated at 105 kt [121 mph] over a very small area north of the center and it is not clear whether these strongest winds reached the coast or remained over water."</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">As expected, Jeanne's storm surge levels were considerably lower, reaching an estimated six feet from Melbourne to Ft. Pierce (Lawrence and Cobb 2005). The map below show's Jeanne's track and storm surge observations.</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.u-surge.net/"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1200" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEix2mMhKjtAqQooTiwuFdJOXM5lm6M0GVqhbA9A3CSDsKm3cea9yMdXmWxhfno1sSnIYIzd9VqdzBt_7pPZBG0lOSxM8PWlE5b6M-Y6dyozeHbWSP2XdCB6_t1zED9H_fh9P7OlFFV9XOM/s640/Plot_Jeanne_190829.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">So what do these storms tell us about the storm surge potential for Hurricane Dorian? Well, we have a few clues...</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The latest NHC advisory only provides wind field size forecasts for 74-mph wind out to Sun Sep 1 at 200AM EDT and landfall may occur as late as Tuesday morning. The forecast predicts Dorian to have an unusually small area of hurricane-force winds for such a powerful storm, only reaching to 46 miles (40 nm) by early Sunday morning. However, it should be on a trend of an expanding the wind field at that time. Even if the wind field doubled by early Tuesday morning, it would still only reach 92 miles (80 nm).</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The table below compares wind speed and the area of hurricane-force wind speed for these storms. </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS1eaAOQdacmm-vqtWz3NGQt_yYZ6saYldBBAIZLEp6riw9fEKLU2Fx2K0sxz3w_zCBwbD5CxY9AMkIBLJwRvIneX4-lFUF5BhFhrd6ojt0GPIPTnTFrdC271eEQsgd72dc7hpwaVe520/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+9.29.01+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="149" data-original-width="787" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgS1eaAOQdacmm-vqtWz3NGQt_yYZ6saYldBBAIZLEp6riw9fEKLU2Fx2K0sxz3w_zCBwbD5CxY9AMkIBLJwRvIneX4-lFUF5BhFhrd6ojt0GPIPTnTFrdC271eEQsgd72dc7hpwaVe520/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+9.29.01+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Note that storm surge prediction is complex and depends on many factors, including coastal shape, profile and offshore water depth. Generally speaking, the farther north we travel along Florida's East Coast, the higher the storm surge potential.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">That said, the world needs a "back of the envelope" storm surge estimate right now...something to give general guidance. So I'm going to step out and make a prediction for a peak surge of 8-10 feet based on the best available data right now.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Keep in mind this is water depth above Normal Astronomical Tides (NAT). We are just coming down from a king tide cycle, so water levels in most communities should already be elevated well above Mean Sea Level (MSL) at time of high tide.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Consider the tide forecast at Trident Pier in Port Canaveral (see graph below). High tide is forecast to reach 2.47 feet above MSL on Monday night around 11PM. This prediction is based on the Earth- Moon relationship and does not account for impacts from Hurricane Dorian. A storm surge level of 7.53 feet would push salt water to 10 feet above MSL at this site.</span></div>
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<a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8721604&units=standard&bdate=20190829&edate=20190904&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MSL&interval=6&action=" style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="1153" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5sKgdtutYmp9kwzS-RxCW_SYURStgE5M3KNwTdBapcLhLirwo3GgSxsBWZ79LwotN8LdovgVBWTK3MipdmgMrjjP1Onhh4MduTzaA3Nw6BpxVjKFcpZwJFkRdpU1JdjDEU4sxub7Zp2s/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+7.44.47+AM.png" width="640" /></a><br />
<i style="text-align: justify;">Tide forecast for Trident Pier in Port Canaveral shows a forecast high tide of 2.47 feet above Mean Sea Level (MSL) on Monday night. </i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Please keep the following in mind:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1) This forecast could change substantially given changes in Dorian's the track, intensity and size.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2) Even if this forecast is right on the money, it only tells a small part of the story. If Dorian was moving through quickly and exiting the stage door 12 hours after landfall, this storm would be easier to comprehend. But latest model runs show Dorian slowing down considerably and tracking north along the Peninsula.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This creates the following high-impact angles to Dorian's flood story:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">EXTENSIVE COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">If Dorian does track north up the Florida Peninsula, the potential for extensive coastal flooding and erosion along the entire Florida coastline north of Palm Beach increases substantially.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The latest Euro model run below shows the potential for hurricane-force winds to move up the coast even as Dorian's eye could track inland. A slow-moving hurricane taking this path could generate an extensive coastal flood event with massive erosion and property losses.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2019083000&fh=96"><img border="0" data-original-height="687" data-original-width="932" height="470" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghWcoBP4FLot0TVHaMV9QHRqGYP1gnqkNqVyhJcpxWO55bGbB8WynztTjGAJuhpRHBQ2K_jjeOvTaT5Dl7nwb8jiwGlAwxSdO5MjJWyVO9AObHw0DVuUvzVzZBAVQqh8LWGyKZ74KwUd0/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+9.49.03+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"> </span><span style="font-size: large;">COMPOUND FLOOD EVENT</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A slow-moving hurricane or tropical storm greatly increases the risk of compound flooding from both storm surge and heavy rain.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The latest GFS precipitation forecast, copied below, shows the potential for 14 or more inches of rain over an extensive area from South Florida through South Carolina. </span></div>
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<a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2019083006&fh=180"><img border="0" data-original-height="670" data-original-width="937" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTyZDNXEmYvuTOHzDFCXU-D0SzHBGoPtfxagfjW8pCGh_PeFuoRwlZSUOxOzc46j5kbMyhVqfpmb0khTitxKceiYug_FFJ0Ya1y9pj-Htv319OcEAhfI8uJxgj891pkMbNBzVIot959CE/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+9.44.10+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Prolonged saltwater inundation will oppose, and effectively "dam" fresh water runoff, preventing this rain from draining to the coast. So when it rains 18" in an urban area next week, where is that rain going to drain to when saltwater is vigorously pushing inland?</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">It is becoming more likely that places that have never flooded before could experience deep inundation. Seven years ago this week, Hurricane Isaac's (2012) compound surge/ rain flooding inundated parts of southeast Louisiana that did not flood in Hurricane Katrina. The picture below shows the inundation in Laplace, Louisiana.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMSe75GIo98"><img border="0" data-original-height="208" data-original-width="350" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoKhT8rxXiFkhwo_2D1o9sfsv-vJzK9fiGkTPr1UQ346RsZnAZ4XADbjP6vSs-bgHkTHMZGvncO6U9mc_nDIS9wDQLCi6nOH8QFLNeL5EZ60vXrvB44vA8cNTMJPeYLEmGojLMS8-1iZM/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+10.40.24+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="text-align: justify;"><i>Inundation in Laplace, Louisiana, from Hurricane Isaac (2012). </i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">The ironic fact about compound flooding is that the worst impacts and greatest loss to life and property often happen after the storm has made landfall and the category has been "downgraded". </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Compound floods are long-duration events and humans cannot process long time frames well. We've watched too many movies when all the action happens in a quick explosion. It's much harder for us to comprehend that our flood threat is just beginning after the news says a storm has been downgraded or weakened.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">LONG-DURATION FLOOD EVENT</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Hurricane Dorian threatens to generate a long-duration flood event, which will exacerbate impacts. A long-duration coastal flood event enables saltwater to push farther inland. A longer-duration rain and wind event will bring down many more trees.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I observed a lot of tree falls last year from Hurricane Florence in North Carolina. When I talked to locals about the storm impacts, many people told me they thought the long-duration of the wind and rain enabled Florence to bring down so many trees, because the soil gave way after days of inundation. See pic below.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjUdSyGHHcR_zxwsdjcf5mtTwxGcjxU-mf2JyFC2ToWXF6p6tQAuUKeeJXd7Yu3UVqfTv8aq22wXTnzwTh-nhAsgMw9FtzqekvV0BzoNQpN4ArqlzL0SMe1iM7NOG_e7J8Rv0SFfwpaS4/s1600/TREE_DOWN_190529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjUdSyGHHcR_zxwsdjcf5mtTwxGcjxU-mf2JyFC2ToWXF6p6tQAuUKeeJXd7Yu3UVqfTv8aq22wXTnzwTh-nhAsgMw9FtzqekvV0BzoNQpN4ArqlzL0SMe1iM7NOG_e7J8Rv0SFfwpaS4/s640/TREE_DOWN_190529.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Wilmington, NC observed massive tree falls in Hurricane Florence last September because of the long-duration of strong winds blowing on trees in wet soil. Photo: Hal Needham</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">SECOND FLOOD "HOT" SPOT</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">The concaved-shaped coastline from northeast Florida through southwest South Carolina, including the entire Georgia Coast, is a "hot spot" for coastal flooding. The shape of the coastline and the shallow offshore water depth effectively enhance salt water floods if a hurricane is centered just off the northeast Florida coast or even located over the Peninsula.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Georgia has a brutal history of saltwater floods that struck in the late 1800s. The photo below, from the 1898 hurricane, shows widespread destruction at Brunswick, where a 16-foot storm surge slammed the coast. This storm also produced an 18-foot storm tide at Sapels Lighthouse and killed 179 people.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWWW5pTp6EQrveWedk1ZFBXDKoLAav9hDwxmrUhIABBEHBXkJlZbsHrT0r6ma5O9kBX67TbbGmNPooVcmKswauzXEcN_C3d7R8gGMr4ykR12BEsUOIVlqTuBlgn45DaKElIfqk5YtoqXE/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+10.16.41+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="382" data-original-width="502" height="484" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWWW5pTp6EQrveWedk1ZFBXDKoLAav9hDwxmrUhIABBEHBXkJlZbsHrT0r6ma5O9kBX67TbbGmNPooVcmKswauzXEcN_C3d7R8gGMr4ykR12BEsUOIVlqTuBlgn45DaKElIfqk5YtoqXE/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+10.16.41+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">For more reading, see my blog post from October 7, 2016, "<a href="http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com/2016/10/the-protected-coast-is-now-most.html">The Protected Coast is Now the Most Dangerous Place of All...</a>"</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;">Hurricane Irma's (2017) storm surge map shows how efficient this area is for generating storm surge. Along the east coast, tide gauges near the Florida/ Georgia border observed the highest water levels, as seen on the U-Surge storm surge map below. This surprised many people who expected the highest surge on Florida's east coast to be closer to Miami.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrwmmLLl_R7Qq1LYwL9c49pOdzg0h7o8eHfRE0drFVZSwthOZOMGbM__MfE1MYfR5xmsJw2hyphenhyphenumjtmbDHiIeCjXPwY4hiQHTKEuhNLHYXCZoaCkse5VM0y4cdr1aY_KsYOJVIBmQeQElg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+10.20.30+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="582" data-original-width="851" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrwmmLLl_R7Qq1LYwL9c49pOdzg0h7o8eHfRE0drFVZSwthOZOMGbM__MfE1MYfR5xmsJw2hyphenhyphenumjtmbDHiIeCjXPwY4hiQHTKEuhNLHYXCZoaCkse5VM0y4cdr1aY_KsYOJVIBmQeQElg/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+10.20.30+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="text-align: justify;"><i>U-Surge map of Hurricane Irma's storm surge flooding. Note the localized maximum near the Florida/ Georgia border.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The latest Euro model run shows Dorian tracking just inland up the Florida Peninsula and then following the coastline along Georgia and South Carolina. The model run shows the wind field increasing in size dramatically compared to the initial landfall in southeast Florida.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=seus&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2019083000&fh=168"><img border="0" data-original-height="669" data-original-width="940" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLtm3Ik739yexuLB4f5wYP7lpTDAy6fZwjIn3-tVCZQMfID13JP3Lgwk-_6AsqvBfpCiPJ04ZPUql1pnS4oztMZAFzlHg-p2jSXwnzQx_YWSDkRySsgZFgZCDqDeW5BGdvcuAj4l7SabQ/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-30+at+10.24.45+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Euro model for Thursday evening, forecasts Dorian to be centered along the coast near the Georgia/ South Carolina border with an increasing wind field.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">If this forecast comes close to verifying, places like Jacksonville, Savannah (Tybee Island), Hilton Head and Charleston could observe substantial flooding, especially if the wind field increases in area.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Long story short, we are potentially looking at a multi-dimensional, long-term flood event that includes:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1) An initial storm surge in southeast or central Florida;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2) Extensive coastal flooding and erosion along most of Florida's East Coast;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3) Severe compound flooding that inundates areas with deep water that have never flooded on record;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">4) A potential second coastal flood hotspot from St. Augustine/ Jacksonville through Charleston, including all of coastal Georgia.</span></div>
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Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-12106063365328685322019-08-29T12:19:00.000-05:002019-08-29T12:20:46.277-05:00Dorian Eyes Florida and Forecast Slowdown after Landfall May Increase Flood Risk<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">BIG PICTURE</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Hurricane Dorian should intensify today and tomorrow and become a major hurricane (cat 3) on Friday. Dorian is expected to make a westward turn on Friday and Saturday, and approach the Florida Coast late in the weekend or early next week. Considerable uncertainty in the track remains, and the entire Florida Peninsula is still in the "cone of uncertainty". A stronger version of Dorian could track farther to the south and a slightly weaker version track farther north. Regardless of the exact landfall location, Dorian could inflict severe wind and storm surge impacts related to landfall, and then possibly prolonged flood impacts north to Georgia and the Carolinas next week.</span></div>
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<a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#"><img border="0" data-original-height="477" data-original-width="560" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-pEOhWg1XxlPdQAMcADjKFBQyCCK7VFluLOaiz7t9Jv8bLnXc-f4rgyceh9XLdmjiKxU6pc8A6DY9jZVh9cxbnoMRpCdVZ60_x7s2b4czbk4ic-hiwTJXD7V0casKx_XI_iFnbS2cFJk/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+9.39.23+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Infrared satellite imagery late on the morning of Thu Aug 29 shows signs of development with Hurricane Dorian. Image: University of Wisconsin CIMSS- Tropical.</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">IN DETAIL</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">It helps to think of Dorian's development and impacts in four distinct phases:</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">PHASE NAME TIMING</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">PHASE I INTENSIFICATION THU PM - FRI</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">PHASE II TURNING FRI - SAT</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">PHASE III COASTAL IMPACTS SUN - TUE</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">PHASE IV PROLONGED FLOODING TUE - THU</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">PHASE I: INTENSIFICATION</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">THU PM - FRI</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Dorian's maximum sustained have held at 85mph for the past 12 hours. Some moderate wind shear associated with an upper level low to the west has been impeding Dorian from intensifying. This upper level low should back off later on Thursday, enabling Dorian to strengthen. The National Hurricane Center forecasts maximum sustained winds will increase to 100mph by this evening.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Dorian should then track through a very favorable environment for intensification, as low wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures and a moist environment enable Dorian to likely become a major hurricane (cat 3) on Friday.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2019/anomw.8.26.2019.gif"><img border="0" data-original-height="579" data-original-width="927" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYVg1dT4a80mT8b5aF_KeC0wIj2ymnHfI_TLIWEqQLBeRpbxI-vSu7BII2RuMrZIaNf7l4B0oniD0XXvOqA_ExVYi0VU_23h-C5eB-oupDF2FOykXJgJzBjw2zf_d9dcJAE3BY1tZ1v-c/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+10.07.44+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The sea surface temperatures along Dorian's entire forecast path are consistently running warmer than normal. The map above from NOAA/ NESDIS shows the massive extent of warm sea surface temperatures throughout the entire Main Development Region (MDR) of the western North Atlantic basin. These warm waters play a role in Dorian's intensification because they provide the fuel hurricanes need to develop.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">PHASE II: TURNING</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">An upper level ridge should start building to the north or northeast of Dorian and encourage a turn towards the west on Friday and Saturday. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">While the timing, position and strength of this ridge are somewhat uncertain, hurricane climatology reveals an important pattern for such situations. In general, a more powerful hurricane will "feel" the ridge earlier than a weaker hurricane, meaning if Dorian develops into a more powerful hurricane (cat 3-4) by Friday afternoon, it may make a sharper turn to the west than a weaker (cat 2-3) version of the same storm.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl_lPZqBRB_SZwROO44mVN6tE9gR7UjZUZFvV7Kd1-CYxo6MNmwHjMrEdaZ3w2rs7FGdpmDS19iJGGpj6MgldgsjqcGsi1HTH9BZzxQEVxqBxbp-OnDVeonlypmk5GJMwl6SQuBCiPZuo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+11.56.47+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="543" data-original-width="726" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgl_lPZqBRB_SZwROO44mVN6tE9gR7UjZUZFvV7Kd1-CYxo6MNmwHjMrEdaZ3w2rs7FGdpmDS19iJGGpj6MgldgsjqcGsi1HTH9BZzxQEVxqBxbp-OnDVeonlypmk5GJMwl6SQuBCiPZuo/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+11.56.47+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>A stronger version of Hurricane Dorian would likely "feel" the steering of the upper level high pressure system sooner, giving the storm a track farther south.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This may explain, at least in part, the difference in landfall pressures between the latest runs of the American (GFS) and European models. This morning's GFS model showed an air pressure of 968 mb around the time of landfall, whereas yesterday evening's European model forecast a landfall pressure of around 959 mb, which may indicate a slightly stronger storm.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE6viLohkTLggnhHHItE5Kei1TIurtN4XGZTkf4BHJELgpRvtO5SdyJxXIDoRkgJe-b7ne7-ulofkWlhFx7VBuhw3i2pR8S_VsQKxNdSvTHPPmlZWj5vyJdPd315yIsYnNAueDcCSFpRg/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+10.00.13+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="934" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE6viLohkTLggnhHHItE5Kei1TIurtN4XGZTkf4BHJELgpRvtO5SdyJxXIDoRkgJe-b7ne7-ulofkWlhFx7VBuhw3i2pR8S_VsQKxNdSvTHPPmlZWj5vyJdPd315yIsYnNAueDcCSFpRg/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+10.00.13+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>This morning's American (GFS) model run depicts a powerful hurricane with 968 mb central pressure approaching the central Florida coastline.</i><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0dGoh4f9A-U3NgXRSyGdqWazaDOGii3SXLnGntYgDC7Ng1a6KbdPp3xYX9kzQ2tKPNBZaEpBCrpeU-WITm7EQkvDJ1g3MOq-MwAFRPXSw4-NXbKT0EvqMeCPdXgVw52PAP8Q4gD6tl4k/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+10.00.48+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="682" data-original-width="950" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0dGoh4f9A-U3NgXRSyGdqWazaDOGii3SXLnGntYgDC7Ng1a6KbdPp3xYX9kzQ2tKPNBZaEpBCrpeU-WITm7EQkvDJ1g3MOq-MwAFRPXSw4-NXbKT0EvqMeCPdXgVw52PAP8Q4gD6tl4k/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+10.00.48+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Yesterday evening's European model run depicts a storm that is slightly stronger, and considerably farther south than this morning's American (GFS) model run.</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">PHASE III: WIND/ SURGE IMPACTS</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Dorian will likely inflict severe wind and flood impacts along the southeast U.S. Coastline. Although Florida may be the prime target right now, flood and wind impacts could extend into Georgia and South Carolina.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Initially, it looks most likely that Dorian will make landfall somewhere on the Florida peninsula. The late morning (11AM EDT) advisory from the National Hurricane Center indicates that that most likely track would take Dorian to near the Central Florida Coast by Monday morning, and wind speed estimates have bumped up to 130 mph, which would make Dorian a powerful cat-3 hurricane, approaching the cat-4 threshold.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9LzwTIfptWO6NMEnZV9RIWDvShztieEQZwqkfz8LLsv6zbLbXaxX1RorZs1gUwkb3SX3N1S__MqrvUcOzLck3UNz-NjxHuYldKvegzlMgrKh45UaVuNBBwfPzMWHdyXTO9OouqTwvBxo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+10.52.33+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="793" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9LzwTIfptWO6NMEnZV9RIWDvShztieEQZwqkfz8LLsv6zbLbXaxX1RorZs1gUwkb3SX3N1S__MqrvUcOzLck3UNz-NjxHuYldKvegzlMgrKh45UaVuNBBwfPzMWHdyXTO9OouqTwvBxo/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+10.52.33+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>The latest National Hurricane Center advisory still puts the entire Florida peninsula in the cone of uncertainty, with most likely landfall location along the Central Florida coast.</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">I ran some historic storm surge maps this morning to look for guidance from analog/ historic hurricanes that have approached Florida's Atlantic Coast. Considering Dorian's forecast in light of historic observations, the best general guidance I could come up with, based on the current track and intensity forecast, is a storm surge level of 11-13 feet.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I think it's likely for a more powerful version of Dorian to track farther south, but coastal dynamics in southeast Florida are not as conducive for storm surge development as northeast Florida. Therefore, a category 3 hurricane making landfall in northeast Florida, may generate comparable, or slightly higher, storm surge levels than a category 4 hurricane striking southeast Florida.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBknCEYHqiYIDmT722P56rmNyEi4Uw4dBM7Sn15M2yLF6hTdSzwWiNsgfj5IZyhc5p02-uyTdN1GB7B4rWGzy9IQQfZOuoEdVTrWiN0V86UHfKVvnbmNczSN4YY_yRnQ99ah0jGNYRWcE/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+12.04.21+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="779" height="504" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBknCEYHqiYIDmT722P56rmNyEi4Uw4dBM7Sn15M2yLF6hTdSzwWiNsgfj5IZyhc5p02-uyTdN1GB7B4rWGzy9IQQfZOuoEdVTrWiN0V86UHfKVvnbmNczSN4YY_yRnQ99ah0jGNYRWcE/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+12.04.21+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>The coastal profile of northeast Florida, Georgia and South Carolina enhance storm surge levels in this region. Comparable hurricanes will generate higher storm surge in northeast Florida than southeast Florida.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">If we look closely at the NHC advisory, we see an interesting detail that has emerged. Look at the reduced forward motion after landfall on this advisory. According to the map, Dorian would make landfall late morning on Monday and the center of circulation would be near Orlando at 8AM Tuesday.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br />We should not focus on specific locations and timing at this point, but use this insight to see the bigger picture. The NHC forecast is hitting on something also seen in the American and Euro models- it appears that Dorian will slow down dramatically, and make a turn towards the north or northwest around or after landfall.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Given the high uncertainty in the forecast at this time, it is also possible that this turn could happen before landfall, taking Dorian on a track towards Georgia or South Carolina. Although it is too early to know these details, all interests from South Florida through South Carolina should prepare for potential severe wind and flood impacts.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaCLZFpHeWB247gnPjHa1Y5OzMOnOHX0RDMHwPiPC4pxWsZUenyY6Sm_jJv6fBpvv22dJb9qNVTtjzUyHGFm1kRrHlBxuLeBK5M0DnIwjGwE5HOsJDB1P95e8aZCLgInb6VieHXofu2nI/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+12.16.34+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="905" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaCLZFpHeWB247gnPjHa1Y5OzMOnOHX0RDMHwPiPC4pxWsZUenyY6Sm_jJv6fBpvv22dJb9qNVTtjzUyHGFm1kRrHlBxuLeBK5M0DnIwjGwE5HOsJDB1P95e8aZCLgInb6VieHXofu2nI/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-29+at+12.16.34+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I have increased the likelihood of substantial damage from wind and flood impacts for all three hazards on the Hazard Area Likelihood (HAL) Index today. Substantial wind and flood impacts are now probable for all hazards.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The trend for Dorian to slow down dramatically early next week is of great interest, and heightens the drama of this storm. If the slow down or stall happens around or after the time of landfall, it will greatly exacerbate flooding from both storm surge and rainfall....whereas if it occurs before landfall, it could possibly keep Dorian offshore and diminish flood risk.</span></div>
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<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-57237590176671815722019-08-28T16:30:00.003-05:002019-08-28T16:48:07.163-05:00Hurricane Dorian Threatens A Stretch of Florida Coast that Has Been "Lucky" For DecadesBIG PICTURE<br />
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Hurricane Dorian has survived its trek through the mountainous Caribbean Islands and now threatens to bring major wind and storm surge impacts to the Bahamas and U.S. mainland. It threatens to strike a stretch of Florida Coast that has been "lucky" for decades, and could inflict substantial storm surge flooding from South Florida through South Carolina, depending on the exact track.</div>
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IN DETAIL<br />
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Dorian strengthened into a hurricane this afternoon, as it tracked near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, east of Puerto Rico. The system should enter a more favorable development for intensification over the next several days, as it passes over warm ocean water, in a moist environment with relatively low wind shear.</div>
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<a href="https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir"><img border="0" data-original-height="751" data-original-width="1024" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVNkvijyRlD5uyqWT3k2Fchb-tq59awQiJoTBMgJwBSlq5_I5xFq_0P7fgvFozT3_XkT3CgYhfAS6eEvhjR8LHu7Xn2fJ-vWXIy7nhluDj-iDhZlhh5gsNXHYgzk3ii9NgyoXYkDUqglQ/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-28+at+4.24.15+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Infrared satellite imagery on Tue Aug 28 shows explosive growth in Hurricane Dorian over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.</i></div>
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Some uncertainty in the track still remains, but the National Hurricane Center forecasts the northwest track to turn more towards the west beginning Friday, as a building ridge over the Atlantic guides the storm closer to the U.S. coast.</div>
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Given the favorable environment for development, Dorian is now forecast to become a major hurricane and then track over or north of the Bahamas. The entire Atlantic Coast of Florida is still in the "cone of uncertainty" but this range of landfall locations should become smaller in upcoming forecasts.</div>
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<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/"><img border="0" data-original-height="599" data-original-width="788" height="484" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeeSodyPnoDDOQiAMdQ20clFkU5PDcaJ-oe3qods6rsg6suk6p2-vub70NuR-n1P-o02iI7y89SeH2P9queb2gX0yQIkSkxaegq0q0mA8zwAJ0UHarpJ1LDIImb6gVk7XUKYAJl7e_x7Y/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-28+at+3.51.47+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>The National Hurricane Center forecasts Dorian to approach the U.S. coastline as a major hurricane later this weekend and Labor Day.</i><br />
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The National Hurricane Center's best-track forecast right now is for Dorian to strike the central Florida coast as a major (wind category 3+) hurricane. If this forecast verifies, Dorian would fill in a "gap" in Florida's hurricane climatology, as climate records since 1851 provide no major hurricanes that made direct landfall on Florida's Atlantic Coast south of St. Augustine and north of Port St. Lucie. This includes the entire Space Coast region and Daytona Beach area.</div>
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<a href="https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/"><img border="0" data-original-height="671" data-original-width="870" height="492" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbmkO_dGy3uVnQKNkFMdHyTb8jJSOLNBJWolsD9jRriYa63nacmjfBbP4AcUcsp0-zvytTQG2uWa-3uLjbEN-tog7fV5QHMNe-D60wMFXxzXbgaCyNkTSMojYP33A1eGN3iV57uRtyiWg/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-28+at+4.06.10+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Since records began in 1851, no major (cat 3+) hurricanes have made direct landfall south of St. Augustine and north of Port St. Lucie, Florida. Base map: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks Tool.</i><br />
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The map above shows all major hurricanes that tracked within 100 nautical miles of Titusville, on the Space Coast. Since 1851, 10 hurricanes have met this criteria. Of these storms, five made direct landfall on the Atlantic Coast. Hurricane Dora (1964) struck in the northern part of the circle, near St. Augustine, and then a cluster of four hurricanes struck from around Delray Beach through Port St. Lucie. Hurricane Jeanne (2004) is the farthest north of these four clustered storms.</div>
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More recently, the eye of Hurricane Matthew (2016) tracked parallel to the coast. Although the eye remained offshore, and did not make a Florida landfall, the storm's angry waves and storm surge ate away at the coastline and plunged numerous houses into the ocean. A direct strike from a major hurricane would inflict more severe impacts than that.</div>
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<a href="https://www.maxpixel.net/Dock-Outdoors-Damage-Debris-Hurricane-Matthew-Pier-1769035"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="956" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGWAYpwUXFar7zOovldMiNvI3fskZ6XaKewY4dCkafmnASaHUhWBPglQqCYZK7o5kRY15G-xLhyut3gpabx69Ylu8WYQPLJwqN0P4RgEpTSp0IaIBJJV7UP9W73yrHQQjwEV6M1cJIsiI/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-28+at+4.15.10+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Debris from Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Although the storm did not make landfall in Florida, it tracked close enough to the coastline to inflict severe flood and erosion damage from storm surge and massive waves.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
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The updated Hazard Area Likelihood (HAL) Index for Hurricane Dorian, forecasts the likelihood of substantial impacts from wind and storm surge as PROBABLE (orange) and impacts from heavy rain as POSSIBLE (yellow).<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDC4S_K4OavKt42tkDno4YGb8xjzzoGKHVLUVu-Kj8IkK-s9RZzv9k9RveC9KPPh1OrYk9prumy1b9j_TnVKakRRBGu-ycODNq2i6gdzCDmOHXQhiPHMYJrAKMd4uwGxAgChXRvvcIOjc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-08-28+at+4.34.15+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="659" data-original-width="907" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDC4S_K4OavKt42tkDno4YGb8xjzzoGKHVLUVu-Kj8IkK-s9RZzv9k9RveC9KPPh1OrYk9prumy1b9j_TnVKakRRBGu-ycODNq2i6gdzCDmOHXQhiPHMYJrAKMd4uwGxAgChXRvvcIOjc/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-08-28+at+4.34.15+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>The Hazard Area Likelihood (HAL) Index now forecasts the likelihood of substantial impacts from wind and storm surge as probable, and from heavy rain as possible.</i><br />
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In the upcoming days, I will update my blog regularly with the latest forecasts. I will also provide history about past flood events in the region and how Dorian may compare to hurricanes like Dora (1964), Jeanne (2004) and Matthew (2016).</div>
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I will especially provide insights into storm surge flood potential. Keep in mind that the stretch of coastline from northeast Florida through South Carolina, including the entire coastline of Georgia, very efficiently enhances storm surge flooding, and this entire region could experience storm surge flooding even if Dorian makes landfall on the Central Florida coast.</div>
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As Dorian is still centered in the Caribbean, noticeable shifts in the storm's track can be expected. All interests from extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys, through South Carolina, including all of Georgia and eastern Florida, should monitor trusted news and weather sources in the upcoming days.<br />
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<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-37241249278108170472019-05-29T09:11:00.002-05:002019-05-31T10:15:36.305-05:00Seven Lessons Learned from the 2018 Hurricane Season<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="font-size: large;">With the start of the 2019 Hurricane Season right around the
corner, I thought I would go back and share seven lessons I learned from the 2018
Hurricane Season.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Last year I personally did my most in-depth hurricane field
work to date, spending a few weeks on the ground in the areas impacted by
Hurricane Florence and Hurricane Michael. I was in both areas before, during
and after the storm struck. Here’s what I learned:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<o:p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>1) Construction Type Matters</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">I spent time in Panama City in the days after Hurricane Michael's landfall. The
area looked like a nuclear bomb exploded.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">You didn't have to be a construction scientist to see the difference in roof performance in areas like 17th Street. While most of the metal roofs in this region remained intact, wooden roofs were
substantially damaged or gone.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ32k6GKdaB3brgV8L9lAN1jyvIedIcmPfiwzMHTM5KJFLiK7XaJvRrmoi5h7T14GjyCCq3L5s9wDDfH62Tgeg9vhi1BIA_9g5T3KFRplrH-bu2_Xdk2JjAawGnqJKV2OdhcfnMOy5XZs/s1600/ROOFPIC_1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="891" data-original-width="1188" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQ32k6GKdaB3brgV8L9lAN1jyvIedIcmPfiwzMHTM5KJFLiK7XaJvRrmoi5h7T14GjyCCq3L5s9wDDfH62Tgeg9vhi1BIA_9g5T3KFRplrH-bu2_Xdk2JjAawGnqJKV2OdhcfnMOy5XZs/s640/ROOFPIC_1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Metal roofs generally fared better than wooden roofs around 17th Street in Panama City during Hurricane Michael. Photo: Hal Needham</i></div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLXpH9tU9zh_eDh-coG4Ha5diNdlokI_bV05zlKf47Qyup_fe04BiSWmlWDRru36wKmxiiyVLPjCHCWTlow2JjK7l6UEG8-0_L_Av8tpGxhe3w8MpoR8ZEfwL5c10E36erfuhSzK0u8Ho/s1600/ROOFPIC2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="806" data-original-width="1075" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLXpH9tU9zh_eDh-coG4Ha5diNdlokI_bV05zlKf47Qyup_fe04BiSWmlWDRru36wKmxiiyVLPjCHCWTlow2JjK7l6UEG8-0_L_Av8tpGxhe3w8MpoR8ZEfwL5c10E36erfuhSzK0u8Ho/s640/ROOFPIC2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<o:p><i>Metal roofs generally fared better than wooden roofs around 17th Street in Panama City during Hurricane Michael. Photo: Hal Needham</i></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A family in the disaster zone took me up on their metal roof
and explained how well it fared. A tree branch did pierce it, creating a hole,
but they were able to quickly patch it and lived in the house.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This story gave me new insight. I learned that if your house
did not flood and you had a roof intact, you could live at home, even if your
property sustained substantial damage.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOgLeG8yZrLjF4e-d04_J7Hf2Psj4TVcgVNmGAmJFhDlWpRRi9D05E96wczErbR6TlnMyHZi9PlmMooSjsKc_SaXfrBwupStuzV6M2g1rrCDLxS9H_Hm4Wt8kfeuJmCKHdklmqNQAK-Lg/s1600/ROOFPIC3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="1383" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgOgLeG8yZrLjF4e-d04_J7Hf2Psj4TVcgVNmGAmJFhDlWpRRi9D05E96wczErbR6TlnMyHZi9PlmMooSjsKc_SaXfrBwupStuzV6M2g1rrCDLxS9H_Hm4Wt8kfeuJmCKHdklmqNQAK-Lg/s640/ROOFPIC3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>A family invited me to see their roof following Hurricane Michael. I'm standing on the left. Photo: Hal Needham</i></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ2FoquhjTT2gChb-gDOgyMJh13d42658ZWRyT7Jt1mK66A71IyUz9g7Dk6C21kydW-lcN7bIgDQIQavK6mt3j8YmI7jfIADXwL6SZqODuOI6fYvOSNmF0zGRwDKGDwUuUTPEgdT6nXRk/s1600/ROOFPIC4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="909" data-original-width="1212" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQ2FoquhjTT2gChb-gDOgyMJh13d42658ZWRyT7Jt1mK66A71IyUz9g7Dk6C21kydW-lcN7bIgDQIQavK6mt3j8YmI7jfIADXwL6SZqODuOI6fYvOSNmF0zGRwDKGDwUuUTPEgdT6nXRk/s640/ROOFPIC4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<o:p><i>A close-up pic of a roof that successfully weathered Hurricane Michael. Overlapping metal sheets did not allow Michael's winds to get under the roof. Photo: Hal Needham</i></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This family told me they just put on a new roof the year before. They chose to spend a little more money on a better roof and that decision helped them immensely when Hurricane Michael struck.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Of course, there are no guarantees in hurricanes. Metal
roofs sometimes fail and some wooden roofs fare better than others. This is
just an observation I made from spending time in a few neighborhoods that
sustained category-4 winds of around 140 – 145 mph.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>2) Evacuation Direction Matters</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I spoke to several people who evacuated from Hurricane Michael by moving inland and slightly to the east. While this decision removed them from proximity to saltwater storm surge, in some cases it placed them in more dangerous winds.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">One woman left a neighborhood in Panama City Beach that observed category-3 winds and evacuated to Parker, a community to the east that observed upper category-4 winds and experienced catastrophic damage. In retrospect, she thought that decision could have cost her life.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">By contrast, families who evacuated west, or who went farther inland, fared better. Hurricane forecast models consistently predicted Hurricane Michael would curve to the northeast before landfall.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">For example, people who evacuated one hour west to Destin, Florida, were happy with their decision, found little traffic and were able to make it back home quite quickly.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisZ6ntUu4ExtUTfwWOb1HK2i4aHWeiTjysYzlH-IoUUBPEplPWN7MgBr_alxjydlJwzauUz4t6663TGkB_T_XgBfDqsG9A8IX0GfIf600rzGtEZgXc1LtbTEoGEl4RrHk2BrSYdK3uLKM/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-05-29+at+7.51.40+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="605" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEisZ6ntUu4ExtUTfwWOb1HK2i4aHWeiTjysYzlH-IoUUBPEplPWN7MgBr_alxjydlJwzauUz4t6663TGkB_T_XgBfDqsG9A8IX0GfIf600rzGtEZgXc1LtbTEoGEl4RrHk2BrSYdK3uLKM/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-05-29+at+7.51.40+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i style="font-size: 12pt;">Satellite image of Hurricane Michael, with an arrow showing the path of people I talked to who evacuated to the west. These people fared better than those who did not evacuate or who evacuated east. Of course, evacuating inland is usually the safest decision.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">We must keep in mind, however, that uncertainty still exists in hurricane forecast modeling, and coastal residents should not make decisions on a "pinpoint" forecast, but rather consider the entire cone of uncertainty when forecasts are issued. Of course, evacuating inland is the safest bet when leaving a hurricane hazard zone.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>3) Keep A Battery-Powered Radio Handy</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I spoke with a pastor in Panama City who was using his church as a base for receiving and sending hurricane relief supplies. I asked him to share the biggest lesson he learned from Hurricane Michael. He said, "I wish I had a battery powered radio. I can't believe I didn't think of that because I'm usually prepared. But in the days after Michael cell phones did not work and it was hard to get information."</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A radio station in the disaster zone was sharing crucial information in the days following the storm, such as where to receive food and water, where and when curfew existed, how to apply for disaster assistance, etc. A battery-powered radio can be a lifeline to the world following a disaster!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>4) Prolonged Wind and Rain Leads to More Downed Trees...Even in Tropical Storms</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Hurricane Florence made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina. In the following days, Florence was downgraded to a tropical storm and slowly drifted to the southwest, not far from the South Carolina border.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The storm generated tropical storm force winds and dumped copious amounts of rain on eastern North Carolina in the days following landfall.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Many neighborhoods in Wilmington experienced dozens of tree falls. This surprised many people because Florence never generated hurricane-force winds in Wilmington. In fact, the highest sustained (2-min) wind speed observed in Wilmington was 57 mph, with a gust to 91 mph, keeping Wilmington well within the zone of tropical storm force sustained winds, which range from 39 to 73 mph.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhubpkw3Mo4jwhcW34F_yWYUeHjR4_wSqU8ige3elI1XmTfycLJabRd7qRpDzW-gqeMtC7i5r2PMnUnEpTJ5f-YiapHYH0OAaQnk9fzgTcybkyO9YCQHEnUMgoznEHcXPuaIjsjGDcf0qc/s1600/TREE_DOWN_190529.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhubpkw3Mo4jwhcW34F_yWYUeHjR4_wSqU8ige3elI1XmTfycLJabRd7qRpDzW-gqeMtC7i5r2PMnUnEpTJ5f-YiapHYH0OAaQnk9fzgTcybkyO9YCQHEnUMgoznEHcXPuaIjsjGDcf0qc/s640/TREE_DOWN_190529.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Photo of a massive tree that fell from Tropical Storm Florence in Wilmington, North Carolina. Photo: Hal Needham</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">However, Florence taught us a valuable lesson. A tropical storm generating winds of 50-60 mph is still able to down many trees when strong winds are blowing for multiple days and the trees are rooted in saturated soil. </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>5) Strong Communities Come Together and Open Accessibility Faster</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The fifth lesson I learned last year is that strong communities come together and open accessibility faster. I came across a street in Panama City that was surprisingly open two days after Hurricane Michael struck. While other neighborhoods were choked with fallen trees, the streets in this community were already open.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">As I made my way down this street I discovered why. Locals had come together and shared resources, like gas containers, jeeps and chain saws. Young and old worked together to clear their street, instead of waiting for the government to come and remove the debris.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDze-M7uhhoAulnTdyO2s0oePcQbElIinyrWmhDq_Lw60OcTxaWHgJF6zLR8fh-N06agLqjZNrnClSEpUrNKIs-q96HNaMA9gSuqcOo1FnEmGaRN-FzOAVeJRz_2sI9wiTLTMAD42VGDg/s1600/COMETOGETHER1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="890" data-original-width="1188" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDze-M7uhhoAulnTdyO2s0oePcQbElIinyrWmhDq_Lw60OcTxaWHgJF6zLR8fh-N06agLqjZNrnClSEpUrNKIs-q96HNaMA9gSuqcOo1FnEmGaRN-FzOAVeJRz_2sI9wiTLTMAD42VGDg/s640/COMETOGETHER1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>A community in Panama City came together in the days after Hurricane Michael to share resources and open up their road. Photo: Hal Needham</i><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil0NBgTk51TOvZ6DWT0_UKUSIlqFJyQhasCcggSdG-qfvjFJuxJ1JGua4UkYpXG6ADrVMEmpeHW6D-FgcNtMh8P7ysJLBmZM6QxQXNbzqBWbs8ySrZIE4TvnZFpizc1hJBSWD6bKAc2Wg/s1600/COMETOGETHER2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="890" data-original-width="1188" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil0NBgTk51TOvZ6DWT0_UKUSIlqFJyQhasCcggSdG-qfvjFJuxJ1JGua4UkYpXG6ADrVMEmpeHW6D-FgcNtMh8P7ysJLBmZM6QxQXNbzqBWbs8ySrZIE4TvnZFpizc1hJBSWD6bKAc2Wg/s640/COMETOGETHER2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Picture of progress! This community in Panama City came together to open their road soon after Hurricane Michael struck. They cleared more than 1/4 mile of roadway within two days of Michael's landfall, giving them accessibility for disaster supplies to reach the residents. Photo: Hal Needham</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">I saw this same spirit of community engagement in Texas during Hurricane Harvey (2017) and in the several years I lived in Alaska. If an ice storm hits Interior Alaska and trees are across the roads, locals are going to work together to clear it right away instead of waiting for outside assistance.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">These neighborhoods open up quicker and also experience the benefit of bonding from working together as a community.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>6) Many People are Only Familiar With Their Own Hurricane History</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I was surprised that more people were not evacuating the day before Hurricane Florence struck the Carolinas. I arrived in North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, miles from the North Carolina border, to find that many people decided to ride the storm out because the category number dropped.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">At the time, Florence was forecast to slowly drift near the coast of the Carolinas and dump tremendous rainfall. The biggest danger was from the water not the wind. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale does not indicate danger from flood, it is based entirely on maximum sustained wind velocity, so a lower-category storm does not mean flood risk has reduced.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Other locals said they were not going to leave because they fared well in Hurricane Hugo (1989). Hugo was a vicious category-4 hurricane that made landfall right in the heart of South Carolina, but Florence was no Hugo. While Florence made landfall as a category-1 hurricane, the real threat from this storm was flooding from days of torrential rain as the storm drifted.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDtkLnWsbn3sgrdfdyG2a55a73b5IZQMR7JcDFwCcahMLbupbQXjSpGJhH_45-HDbu23awKGjwuPqeSTaPNp3IjzDujaNrTpKm5ZZy-JcyUbEwJobnozld-eyN_wOtW1SXLC37VbBHzLI/s1600/FAIRBLUFF.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDtkLnWsbn3sgrdfdyG2a55a73b5IZQMR7JcDFwCcahMLbupbQXjSpGJhH_45-HDbu23awKGjwuPqeSTaPNp3IjzDujaNrTpKm5ZZy-JcyUbEwJobnozld-eyN_wOtW1SXLC37VbBHzLI/s640/FAIRBLUFF.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Flooded streets in Fair Bluff, North Carolina, following days of torrential rain from Tropical Storm Florence. Parts of North Carolina observed more than 30 inches of rain. Photo: Hal Needham</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I told locals that this storm is not like Hugo, but more like Harvey (2017). They just looked at me with a blank stare, as if to ask, "What's Harvey?"</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Hurricane Harvey stalled along the Texas Coast in 2017 and dumped more than 50 inches of rain in parts of metro Houston and the Beaumont-Port Arthur area. The storm led to $125 billion dollars in losses. I was living in nearby Galveston when Harvey struck, but I thought Harvey made the entire country aware of the danger from a stalled-out tropical system.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">It had not.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I learned a lesson while on the ground in the day before Florence. People know their own hurricane history, but may not know valuable lessons taught to other cities, no matter how devastating.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>7) Hurricanes Winds Can Be Strong Enough to Blow Over a Train</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The seventh lesson I learned last year has to do with the power of hurricane winds. I never had seen such catastrophic wind damage as I saw in the days following Hurricane Michael.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A portion of an apartment complex, around eight or nine stories in air, was ripped out and I found slabs of the wall more than one block away. Nearby cars looked bombed out from debris strikes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">But the most lasting vision in my mind is the train that blew over from Michael's category-4 winds in the eastern part of Panama City. Michael was able to blow many cars of this train off the track, and wheels were still suspended in the air days after the storm.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQmQ9uoA3wBCuc9Zck9VUa-QWcsoniypxoji2Jlro64aKfB1FMktG_beWowc2xbelCqP7IwmMebjipYaBBx0waeZEq7yJAbjWjx-WI2q10bvgHQ-nfDZwYWFw5lT9nW4OljzcJc1kuiNw/s1600/TRAIN1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQmQ9uoA3wBCuc9Zck9VUa-QWcsoniypxoji2Jlro64aKfB1FMktG_beWowc2xbelCqP7IwmMebjipYaBBx0waeZEq7yJAbjWjx-WI2q10bvgHQ-nfDZwYWFw5lT9nW4OljzcJc1kuiNw/s640/TRAIN1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<i> Hurricane Michael's category-4 winds (in this location) blew this train off the tracks in the eastern part of Panama City, Florida. Photo: Hal Needham</i><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV3Bk2dyEqvU6HfsB6wDhsfP_YEZ4b127wEi0QYYfi3zi7hzq5ItXHTDlhTwEk0RQXPyTmOs_OzhvgfvARAy237AK8dgmjKZdIeXQBeAoGIHlNA_kP3sh6VDH0zGFA_d73ltAx20fGm4E/s1600/TRAIN2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="960" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgV3Bk2dyEqvU6HfsB6wDhsfP_YEZ4b127wEi0QYYfi3zi7hzq5ItXHTDlhTwEk0RQXPyTmOs_OzhvgfvARAy237AK8dgmjKZdIeXQBeAoGIHlNA_kP3sh6VDH0zGFA_d73ltAx20fGm4E/s640/TRAIN2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times"; font-size: small;"><i> Hurricane Michael's category-4 winds (in this location) blew this train off the tracks in the eastern part of Panama City, Florida. Photo: Hal Needham</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Nearby, I came across several cars that look flattened. Their damage was not consistent with other cars in this part of the city. Then I saw a damaged shipping container angled into the highway and a SUV perched off the edge of a retaining wall.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Putting the pieces together, it appears that Michael flipped or rolled this shipping container through a parking lot, flattening or pushing many vehicles. In this area of the city, maximum sustained winds were estimated at category-4...probably sustained in the 140 mph range.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>2019 Hurricane Season Fast Approaching</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">The 2019 Hurricane Season is fast approaching, as it officially begins this Saturday, June 1. In the upcoming weeks, I will be doing a series of blogs related to coastal flood and wind risk, and looking at the upcoming hurricane season.</span></div>
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<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-61114514725315529862019-05-01T13:57:00.002-05:002019-05-01T14:16:30.068-05:00Cyclone Fani Threatens to Generate Extensive Storm Surge in India<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Tropical Cyclone Fani has increased in strength on
Wed May 1, as it tracked northward in the Bay of Bengal, east of India. As of
Wednesday evening, local time, the cyclone packed maximum sustained winds of
105 kts (121 mph, 194 kph), according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
(JTWC).</span><o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: "calibri"; font-size: 16px;"> </span><a href="https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/01B/01B_floater.html"><img border="0" data-original-height="477" data-original-width="717" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCovTJr4-fF8Enw31aZc_fJ3mg1oww9GS1e1THLIf8F1jYQwBuv8woL1P-_a7io1FT6PoFultQdxx1G-xvtJgvTpdRUdSh-wJ5GhXX6igDRBQ28cil-6mWtOweF0zwpycyBs6RF8XJbos/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-05-01+at+1.48.02+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i>Water vapor satellite imagery of Cyclone Fani on Wed May 1, 2019. </i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">If this cyclone were in the Atlantic Ocean it would be
classified as a category-3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">The cyclone is forecast to remain powerful as it
approaches the northeast Indian coast, although it may weaken slightly before landfall. While Fani is forecast to make landfall
in Orissa, severe impacts
will be felt throughout Orissa and West Bengal.</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io0119.gif"><img border="0" data-original-height="669" data-original-width="1054" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjgaqlkobIrqGNan8h1F48G8cDy_rafqo6bjZPXVtUtkHV2GgEWy2_kckmDmXy9-VmbrFXTxTgmN_JkyH-IlgUmLJ_Bc1GCxC27Mcs66gELVSFOq8HO8CzGtDyzOCFyAk1Q7ll02g3VY8/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-05-01+at+1.51.27+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i>Cyclone Fani's forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><br /></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Fani’s alongshore track will enable the cyclone to generate dangerous
storm surge levels along a widespread area of coastline. This occurs when
cyclones move along a coastline as the center of the storm moves towards the
direction of onshore winds. Another way to visualize such cyclones is by picturing them turning to the "right" in the Northern Hemisphere and the "left" in the Southern Hemisphere.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Hurricane Flossy took an alongshore track near the U.S. Gulf
Coast in 1956, generating a large storm surge well to the "right" of the landfall location. However, locations much closer to the hurricane's center, but on the "left" side of the storm observed much lower storm surge levels.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">For example, Flossy's eye tracked just south of Pensacola, Florida, but the maximum storm tide there only reached 2.85 feet (0.87 m). Yet, in Cedar Key, Florida, more than 400 miles from the landfall location, storm tide levels exceeded 7 feet (2.13 m). </span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXL-Kt9364Rr-_aFbMw8OqB0jxs2ulNrfoKJXVyR7rOifmS2Iv1zxhVWDn5LY9n2yziJya8ftnyiL8LpOdB1ThUHAEHT0FzR5tGwr5jSaeP4Wf_Dqt9KaT1GAhnjHWvZ-wxaI-CeXFY6s/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-05-01+at+1.54.23+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="644" data-original-width="1008" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXL-Kt9364Rr-_aFbMw8OqB0jxs2ulNrfoKJXVyR7rOifmS2Iv1zxhVWDn5LY9n2yziJya8ftnyiL8LpOdB1ThUHAEHT0FzR5tGwr5jSaeP4Wf_Dqt9KaT1GAhnjHWvZ-wxaI-CeXFY6s/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-05-01+at+1.54.23+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i>Hurricane Flossy (1956) generated an extensive storm surge to the "right" of the storm track. Flossy's alongshore track as well as the shallow waters of Florida's coast, provided this setup.</i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><br /></i></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4Jj-2dOPABnUdirLwO4uRP6LOWGSIpTpC2Pq-T8nIDfHTN05tk35sGFL1v1YRPI00Z8gzFfm8XKZ8WhD175DGQh3j0nemkPYUoDCpXtUWRmpLaifHM_B9QjW1-RzjBBbicoka2bemm9Y/s1600/Screen+Shot+2019-05-01+at+1.54.36+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="1010" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4Jj-2dOPABnUdirLwO4uRP6LOWGSIpTpC2Pq-T8nIDfHTN05tk35sGFL1v1YRPI00Z8gzFfm8XKZ8WhD175DGQh3j0nemkPYUoDCpXtUWRmpLaifHM_B9QjW1-RzjBBbicoka2bemm9Y/s640/Screen+Shot+2019-05-01+at+1.54.36+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Marked-up version of the same graphic.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A big exception to this rule was found over the Louisiana Delta, where onshore winds "wrapped around" Flossy and pushed storm surge levels exceeding 12 feet (3.66 m) high.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The impacts of Fani's storm surge may be substantial, as saltwater flooding and "compound flooding" from both storm surge and heavy rainfall should impact densely populated areas, like Calcutta. Models also suggest that flooding may be pronounced along the densely populated Hooghly River.</span><br />
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<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hooghly_River#/media/File:Sunset_at_Hooghly.jpg"><img border="0" data-original-height="165" data-original-width="220" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsIuQdbcQNwpgxLYRDBcBjacUECoMjTYbjfdMmmIUmhUCHRA9N6dvfu8T6_3ZmnQJeeOz57RiAGR1cNKuhlph-EORlXW6svz_ryHjEoM0fmqrHUgIs14zEHmFgDHFwykHypCWsmFo0zio/s640/HOOGHLY.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Fani may produce extensive flooding along the highly-populated Hooghly River.</i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Although Fani will make landfall in India, coastal flood impacts could be felt as far east as Bangladesh. The coastline of northeast India and Bangladesh are extremely susceptible to storm surge flooding, and this area of the world has observed the world's highest storm surge levels.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A tropical storm in 1981 made landfall near the India/ Bangladesh border with sustained winds of 60 mph (100 kph) and generated a storm surge of 2.2 m (7.2 ft) (Dube et al. 1997). Fani should be more intense than the 1981 cyclone and has the potential to generate more extensive flooding.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">REFERENCES</span></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Dube, S.K., A. D. Rao, P.C. Sinha, T.S. Murty, and N.
Bahulayan, 1997: Storm surge in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea : The problem
and its prediction. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Mausam</i>, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">48</b>, 283-304.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
</div>
</div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-35074822141250302942018-10-09T11:57:00.000-05:002018-10-09T11:57:01.888-05:00Follow me inside Hurricane MichaelHey everyone-<br />
<br />
Follow me inside Hurricane Michael. I am on location in Apalachicola, Florida, and will be updating my Facebook account frequently.<br />
<br />
Link: https://www.facebook.com/hal.needham.796<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWhex6pX9O7q0eYilLmKcV22tT8UYFrbEXWxGL3sUnV5Yn_vzkkYduNw8wE631DZC-n0hJ6BByYaEZ7ZGmhpQD7bIOAOIdID6FZnB9x6T3gGsePCbaJ55-QALXtcrXyDGSsFhMCaWuThY/s1600/APAPIC.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWhex6pX9O7q0eYilLmKcV22tT8UYFrbEXWxGL3sUnV5Yn_vzkkYduNw8wE631DZC-n0hJ6BByYaEZ7ZGmhpQD7bIOAOIdID6FZnB9x6T3gGsePCbaJ55-QALXtcrXyDGSsFhMCaWuThY/s640/APAPIC.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
I took the pic above at the Apalachicola waterfront on Tuesday morning. Blue skies will give way to rain squalls and increasing winds later today.<br />
<br />
I wanted to also mention that the U-Surge Project launched a site for Apalachicola. Now you can follow Michael's water level in comparison to 40 other hurricanes and tropical storms from the past!<br />
<br />
As of 500AM this morning, Michael's water level ranked 34th above the annual Mean Sea Level (sea-level rise removed).<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAtUWj4lZ15QX8EaA69PqQyKA3D9yYfr1ASsCEqQh6f0bQW4qUFDha01zq_6VVIMTWra3s2cb9HsdYOs_wuzpcTxp1VR_VEUDaF9JwFkPkUnBrWWno9dIF612Nwiz6Gi0MMBgetXv0kT0/s1600/SS1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="949" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAtUWj4lZ15QX8EaA69PqQyKA3D9yYfr1ASsCEqQh6f0bQW4qUFDha01zq_6VVIMTWra3s2cb9HsdYOs_wuzpcTxp1VR_VEUDaF9JwFkPkUnBrWWno9dIF612Nwiz6Gi0MMBgetXv0kT0/s640/SS1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Stay safe, everybody!<br /><br />
HalHurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com44tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-52260603999852085212018-09-14T07:50:00.003-05:002018-09-14T07:50:46.854-05:00Follow Me from Inside Florence Follow me from inside Hurricane Florence. I’m in a parking garage in North Myrtle Beach, SC. <div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I’m updating everything on my Facebook feed:</div>
<div>
<a href="https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100010445988869">https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100010445988869</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I have to download an app to Post a pic here and I can’t do that now- so just text on today’s post...</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Hal</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12553102291065440914noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-37262311119772082622018-09-11T23:16:00.001-05:002018-09-12T11:45:03.664-05:00Florence Threatens to Inflict Unusual and Multi-Dimensional Flood<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Main Points about Flood Potential</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">1) Hurricane Florence is forecast to slow down and drift near coastline. This would inflict a prolonged compound flood event from storm surge and heavy rain.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">2) Possible southward drift along coastline would inflict an unusual, rapid storm surge event, as winds immediately reverse from offshore to onshore when Florence's eye passes.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">3) Heavy rain impacts are likely for extended distances inland and to the north of Florence's center. The decrease in forward speed will enable Florence to spread torrential rain over a widespread area for many days.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">4) Storm surge flood threat most pronounced in the Carolinas. Inland flood impacts extend as far west as the Appalachians and as far north as Pennsylvania; ground from Virginia through Pennsylvania is already saturated.</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Action Items</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1) If you live along East Coast, from South Carolina through Pennsylvania, stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your local media outlets for updated information, warnings and mandatory evacuations. Florence threatens to inflict disastrous wind and flood impacts across a large region.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: large;">2) Two Facebook groups are connecting people people threatened by Hurricane Florence with volunteers. <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/931528507048700/?fb_dtsg_ag=AdzkKi-ZIuTdet0jKJPW9vGa_QfnehhkhQt5CvZ0T16bBw%3AAdy1Wk0k6tikQs7lRGnXJUqrVEyeWq348W071vNLbrREpA" target="_blank">Flood Survivors (Harvey and Others) Helping Hurricane Florence Friends</a> connects flood victims with flood survivors and provides practical discussions on everything from evacuation to mold remediation. <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/1075687045792546/" target="_blank">Person2Person4Relief</a> directly connects flood victims with volunteers who help with flood relief. </span><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Meteorological Analysis in Detail</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Hurricane Florence is a category-4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Florence will move into a favorable environment with low wind shear and sea surface temperatures exceeding 84 degrees F (29C) over the next day, enabling some strengthening Wednesday. Florence may begin to slightly weaken on Thursday, as the storm encounters increased wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures from upwelling and drier air drawn in from the continent. Nonetheless, Florence should approach the coastline as a major hurricane with widespread impacts.</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="651" data-original-width="798" height="522" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiU7iyONx9XFw42BvZCy5YU6G1rEsMBF7TpHlWDdjJKAQ-EvdBp9F1lTT7iA8G5-WaWBvNthdkGOXw6ClUE5-0AlEalQQGoc8Hf4LJd6e0OgStacBpbaCtSjpMZvmS-Tw_PncJf76nABG0/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-12+at+7.53.53+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Florence to Drift near the Coastline</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A major change from yesterday's forecast is that it is becoming more likely that Florence will slow down and drift before making landfall. This is an ominous development, as warm ocean waters fuel hurricanes. A hurricane centered offshore will weaken at a slower rate than one that stalls inland.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Another development in today's forecast is that Florence is expected to drift west, or even southwest, possibly enabling it to track along the North Carolina and South Carolina coastline. A slow-moving hurricane tracking near a coastline is bad news indeed, as it enables the storm to inflict destructive storm surge along an extended area.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The latest run of the European model shows the unbelievable- Florence nearly making landfall near Wilmington, North Carolina on Thursday evening....then slowly tracking along the entire South Carolina coast through the entire weekend and making a landfall near the Georgia/ South Carolina border on Sunday evening. This scenario would devastate the Carolinas.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjUfjixkze7wEK_YbiiFD9q0yb5SHLHLFEROOBN3_UXM5MlD2hO62pUQ5IpMMZNumbSQN_6zzSlUPkEMTneLhr5Aals_lwYWsmwll4KKtHtImWN5e3kXZDfLuN3CP_u353TEelqtrI43g/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-09-12+at+8.10.07+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="700" data-original-width="1024" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjUfjixkze7wEK_YbiiFD9q0yb5SHLHLFEROOBN3_UXM5MlD2hO62pUQ5IpMMZNumbSQN_6zzSlUPkEMTneLhr5Aals_lwYWsmwll4KKtHtImWN5e3kXZDfLuN3CP_u353TEelqtrI43g/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-12+at+8.10.07+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
European model depicting Florence's position on Thursday evening. Source: Tropical Tidbits/ Levi Cowan.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6GrpRPxKxRwv8hWpkWuSqxvpMGNssgCmn0ZEBRkYWR8nm77-C2Wo__OjSUKojXiGLzJfpEiEYyivVClWpl6c4LmqgaxdVAzJvNevVS7HuIYyNIpPrAb10B0F-mwk2KgHRHS_joLCB5eI/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-09-12+at+8.09.49+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="697" data-original-width="1025" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6GrpRPxKxRwv8hWpkWuSqxvpMGNssgCmn0ZEBRkYWR8nm77-C2Wo__OjSUKojXiGLzJfpEiEYyivVClWpl6c4LmqgaxdVAzJvNevVS7HuIYyNIpPrAb10B0F-mwk2KgHRHS_joLCB5eI/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-12+at+8.09.49+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
European model depicting Florence's position on Sunday evening. Source: Tropical Tidbits/ Levi Cowan.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">It is important not to focus on the exact track, as Florence's extended forecast is still quite uncertain. It becomes difficult to forecast a hurricane's path when there is a drastic decrease in the upper-level steering currents, rivers of air in the upper levels of the atmosphere that drive these storms.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This makes sense to us because we have all experienced a change in steering when riding a bicycle. At a high speed it is easy to choose a straight path, but when we stop pedaling our path becomes less certain as we approach our stopping point. Hurricanes that lose their upper-level steering sometimes wobble or drift in an erratic pattern for extended periods.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Unusual, Rapid Storm Surge Possible</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Most hurricanes that track along the East Coast move from south to north. Because circulation around hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere is counterclockwise, onshore winds steadily increase as the storm approaches. This enables storm surge to gradually build over time.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">It is quite unusual for a hurricane to track from north to south along this coastline, and if this happens, as the European model suggests, the wind and storm surge patterns will be unusual, and inflict rapid storm surge flooding in southern North Carolina and along the South Carolina coast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This coastline would experience increasing offshore winds, blowing from land to water, as Florence's center approaches. This would create chaotic seas, as Florence is still displacing tremendous amounts of water towards land, but a powerful offshore wind would serve to mitigate water levels.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFBUkT-jw0o" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="949" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhz35Feujnk0lO-S5TLp_lCW7-vPamMqIaJyDTEPn10_onXHG-fnxOEc3yHJJ2Bx4hdVNu36Ixd89Ezf_3AV8Qs2Afz2awfWzlAva6AO8obJomcSmkJ_iHdN5HlCzo_HWrdCMBS5YFjRCk/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-12+at+8.41.07+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Super Typhoon Haiyan generated a rapid storm surge in the Philippines as winds in the typhoon's eyewall shifted from offshore to onshore. Haiyan's surge hit more like a tsunami than a typical surge. Footage of this event is available in the first minute of this video from the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFBUkT-jw0o" target="_blank">PBS/NOVA documentary Killer Typhoon</a>.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">However, as soon as Florence's center passed a location, powerful winds in the hurricane's eyewall, the most intense part of the storm, would immediately shift from offshore to onshore, producing a destructive storm surge in the matter of minutes.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This phenomenon was observed in Super Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013. Haiyan's storm surge rushed in more like a typical tsunami than a hurricane storm surge. See the video above (first minute of footage).</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">It should be noted that Haiyan was among the most intense tropical cyclones to ever make landfall, and the sharp boundaries of the bay near Tacloban exacerbated this surge event. I do not expect a Florence's surge would move in as rapidly.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Nonetheless, a southward moving hurricane tracking along the coastline, would produce a sudden reversal of winds from offshore to onshore, rapidly pushing a storm surge into the coastline. This is unfortunate, as rapidly-moving flood events kill more people than gradual floods.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Compound Flood Threat Increasing </span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">While Florence's storm surge and rainfall forecasts are constantly updated, it is important to realize that Florence threatens to inflict widespread compound flooding, from the combination of storm surge and heavy rain, particularly near the coastline.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">During compound flood events, prolonged onshore winds elevate the ocean and fill bays to capacity with salt water, reducing the efficiency for heavy rainfall to drain. This phenomenon enables less rain to produce serious flooding, as the drainage is slowed considerably.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">In 2012, Hurricane Isaac generated a widespread compound flood in southeast Louisiana, flooding some areas that were not flooded by Katrina. This surprised many people, as Isaac was a category-1 hurricane. However, Isaac stalled along the coast, pumping saltwater into Lake Pontchartrain for days, which slowed the drainage of 10-15 inches of rain in the region. </span><br />
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMSe75GIo98" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="493" data-original-width="946" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiIbl_NSwF2QdfROcL7Oe2MNuFbt-sGGjYdbnO1dCMb3bNsIE8EPX3TaMHbkDeHV0nH3nah_508IRqW7q-fRFyF2x78ZvAMDcWCPkHClNHWM-fQXh3Z4KoqBYKAJ7jbNLQjIQFphV30bg/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-12+at+8.26.43+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Hurricane Isaac (2012) inflicted widespread compound flooding in southeast Louisiana. The prolonged nature of the event enabled storm surge and heavy rain to flood some areas not flooded by Katrina. Image: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMSe75GIo98.</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="http://www.cece.ucf.edu/wahl/" target="_blank">Thomas Wahl</a>, Assistant Professor in the Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering at University of Central Florida has studied this phenomenon extensively. He is lead author on a</span><span style="font-size: large;"> </span><a href="https://eos.org/features/when-environmental-forces-collide" style="font-size: x-large;" target="_blank">recent paper published in EOS Earth and Space Science News</a><span style="font-size: large;"> that investigates such complex environmental relationships and takes a broad viewpoint on how multiple factors can amplify the effect of severe storms and other extreme events.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Wahl was also <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2736" target="_blank">lead author on a paper in <i>Nature Climate Change</i></a> that found the threat of compound flooding from storm surge and heavy rainfall was increasing for major U.S. cities.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Wahl expects impacts from compound flooding in Florence and stated that his biggest concerns come from, "A possibly stalling system that could bring unprecedented rainfall and storm surge to the area, not just in terms of intensity but also duration." </span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Rainfall Forecast</b></span></div>
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<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/092830.shtml?rainqpf#contents" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="661" data-original-width="814" height="520" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi76Hlv7qzVJf_7lPWSaIZUc_tLneizMnaD7G2PYcu0W9HcwLXBAjSvFuRSzq6lnJ4xbTAn7Fj-E4Gngpgk9dQ2wtwXVvlnYot5dgDg8noPvxkuGREMFDAAOKwZw4-K7sVMLbSiD8nz0PE/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-12+at+7.34.26+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>National Hurricane Center rainfall forecast from this morning's advisory.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Widespread and long-duration rainfall will likely generate unprecedented flooding through the Carolinas. The graphic above, from this morning's National Hurricane Center advisory, depicts a broad area with 6-10 inches of rain, with rainfall exceeding 20 inches near the North Carolina coast. The advisory states that 20-30 inches could fall in this area, and mentions the possibility of 40-inch totals.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Keep in mind that the rainfall patterns will be highly dependent on Florence's track, which is difficult to pinpoint for a hurricane that stalls near the coastline. Localized maximum rainfall can considerably exceed such forecasts, as training of squalls over the same areas can produced extraordinary rainfall totals for slow-moving tropical systems.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I expect rainfall forecasts may increase considerably across central and western North Carolina, if Florence does indeed drift west, with the center of circulation passing south of this area. Prolonged east winds, which would gain lift as they upslope up the eastern side of the Appalachians, could generate phenomenal rainfall totals.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Heavy Rainfall Displacement in Stalled-out Hurricanes</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">We all make assumptions when we jump to a conclusion that seems obvious. If your friend tells you she lost 10 pounds, the assumption is that she has become healthier. But maybe she has been stressed and not eating, or began smoking heavily. A dramatic increase in salary with a job in a new city may imply increased wealth, until we realize the cost of living in the new city is double.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A major assumption people make with hurricanes is that the flood impacts will be worse the closer we are located to the eye of the storm. This seems intuitive. However, did you realize someone 100 miles from the storm's center may experience more severe flooding than someone 20 miles from the center?</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xFjl_ZovbI" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="679" height="490" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBYzDGzJuHs3aAX97M4dbW7U6-_9hKrlawiYwuOYbh4jDscwTH28iXJ3-SLBFoPMuvbLT-sXdnU1mt_ZVFUEc1N6zukwpk499-btrYqjBKGJpn75FlxU7YFjKAN5jReJfkzBBqXDzPTW4/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-12+at+12.02.52+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Hurricane Harvey (2017) produced heavy rainfall that extended far from the center of circulation on the onshore side of the storm, but dry conditions near the eye on the offshore side. Adapted from Youtube Channel: Washington 1067. Markups by Hal Needham.</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">The counter-clockwise flow around Northern Hemisphere hurricanes that stall out near the coastline, produce onshore winds to one side and offshore winds on the other side.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Heavy rainfall commonly extends for more than 100 miles on the onshore side, but can rapidly diminish on the offshore side.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I have personally experienced this phenomenon during both Hurricanes Isaac (2012) and Harvey (2017).</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The image above shows the rain pattern in Texas as Harvey was centered inland, between Corpus Christi and San Antonio. Harvey whipped bands of torrential rain more than 100 miles east of the circulation center for several days, while areas near the circulation center, on the "left" side of the storm stayed relatively dry.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">People in Corpus Christi were shocked by the relative lack of flooding, as hurricane maps predicted a category-4 hurricane to strike not far east of them, while people displaced more than 100 miles to the east, near Houston/ Galveston and Beaumont/ Port Arthur, were taken off guard that a storm that "missed them" could inflict unprecedented flooding. </span></div>
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZnBp2UnL0A" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="510" data-original-width="803" height="404" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjef2OfTr3RbMqgTDldrpysmL9IYyL2AmVCls4ZO2owcxR0Fp9S_cL56aUjodCdcgoui5NwtNWZ218dbs_OjqCHrD1olUzsvUuKczT8Wg4SWhpf4OhI7iG3H46JNOwmaWq2wBg9JupaxgE/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-12+at+12.06.35+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
NOAA radar loop from Hurricane Isaac (2012). Image courtesy Charles Kuster Youtube Channel.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">The image above is taken from a Hurricane Isaac (2012) radar loop. Note the extent of squalls wrapped around the "right" (onshore) side of circulation, while areas just west of the eye were observing light to moderate showers.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Isaac drifted slowly northwest and the center of circulation passed not far from my home in Baton Rouge. However, Isaac's powerful squalls were displaced considerably to right side of the storm, inflicting more flooding in coastal Mississippi, more than 100 miles to the east, than at my location near the center of the storm.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092012_Isaac.pdf" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="755" height="582" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhhm3qUJbk-Liy2Ak-HBZqMPdKp1c1EdGcI5kl-a1PuP1mFcvTmzTbHaxnip7wrXTdoN3pH5xvo3OHUTQFxGR9wxSVoGhButGL6mZ5YJbo_HfeFdhn2LHHkYkkfFxfxSmSHPng1dj10-6w/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-12+at+12.09.02+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Rainfall map from Hurricane Isaac (2012) shows heavy rainfall displaced to the right of the storm track</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">A map of Isaac's observed rainfall shows a substantial displacement of heavy rainfall to the "right" of the storm track. In fact, it appears that Isaac's track provides a western boundary on the area of heavy rain.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">We cannot generalize that all hurricanes produce this rain pattern. However, when a hurricane stalls out near the coast for prolonged periods, the side with onshore winds is pulling warm, moist air off the ocean, while the side with offshore winds is pulling drier air off the continent.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">The application to Florence is that areas well north of the storm track could observe surprising and unprecedented rainfall totals. At the same time, people in places like South Carolina and even Georgia should remain vigilant...although the southern boundary of the rain shield will probably have a sharp gradient, we cannot know where those rain totals will drop off because of uncertainty in the storm track.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Saturated Soils will Enhance Any Rainfall across Virginia and Mid-Atlantic States</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Finally, a look at recent precipitation and soil moisture content is important for us to get a picture of the ability for the soil to retain heavy rainfall. Fortunately, September has been relatively dry so far for much of the Carolinas and Georgia, as depicted in this PRISM rainfall map below. Northern Virginia and the Mid-Atlantic States, however, have had a wet month so far, with flooding recently reported in northern Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania.</span><br />
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<a href="http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/mtd/" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="583" data-original-width="818" height="454" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgy3cQ2cqMC_J2a3eYRPuoyd3goKGFkELgneavd2eViXZXxvlaEL4j5W0M_kixnZIX-xANMq58tkxL6eb0mrpCoTJBG5l8JCoucS8esyu84PJwfLsT7Ah8Lfq4xxfo-JTHufqhyiKnUi4Y/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+7.06.28+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Cumulative rainfall map for September, from PRISM.</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">A wet September has unfortunately led to saturated soils from northern Virginia through Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The map below from the Climate Prediction Center/ NCEP/ NOAA shows that soil moisture in this region is unusually wet. Therefore, it will not take much rainfall in these areas to induce rapid flooding. </span></div>
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<a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="482" data-original-width="701" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCEmTqD7Yy53Svx91qezAXo6eLXAFngtI3DXfizEhQzv1WFFHI10eLxRCDVW1o2d7LSTV-64dRYT_cwgSKo2pURuOcKr2pzYxu0_UVj2aqnZyzP_lzsYz-FYkL20k6M7R8QD01oEgFMyk/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+7.01.39+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Map of Soil Moisture Anomalies. Climate Prediction Center/ NCEP/ NOAA</i><br />
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<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12553102291065440914noreply@blogger.com25tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-44159553734840689152018-09-11T08:28:00.000-05:002018-09-11T11:28:42.805-05:00The Latest on Florence's Storm Surge and Overall Flood Potential<div style="text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Main Points</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1) Hurricane Florence has intensified to a category-4 hurricane and will likely maintain category-4 strength as it approaches the Carolinas;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2) Florence will generate a large storm surge near and to the east of the landfall location;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3) Wind, rain and storm surge impacts will increase through the day on Thursday...landfall is likely Thursday night or early Friday;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">4) Global weather models agree that Florence will slow down and drift. There is still considerable uncertainty in the timing and location of Florence stalling. If the drift occurs near the coast or offshore, the geographic extent and magnitude of storm surge flooding could increase dramatically;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">5) The truly extraordinary and most catastrophic impacts of Florence will likely come from days of torrential rain near and well north of Florence's center from Thursday through early next week. Regardless of the exact track and intensity, extraordinary rainfall totals could impact locations from South Carolina through Pennsylvania/ New Jersey causing a widespread catastrophe.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Action Points</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1) If you live along East Coast, from South Carolina through Pennsylvania, stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your local media outlets for updated information. Florence threatens to inflict a widespread catastrophe.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">2) I created a Facebook group yesterday to enable people threatened by Hurricane Florence to connect with survivors from previous floods. People are sharing lessons learned here- covering everything from evacuation to mold remediation. <a href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/931528507048700/?fref=mentions&__xts__[0]=68.ARAfDG-sOH2lIRdQMMW4TWpVxpP6I4OYhwiJTzx3L1_CVBeUr9xW10YpWm5O5GXqD2xtxf7Oovg3M-LbSDLKAaxr7B2Fc21LpJEFm56vnDw5CKFaVavAabWGJbPyyASQbxmTKmuQckYzpsvzAjPPAm7GUFbm0GSUdFnm2d_OWIapdQ9mTfd0&__tn__=K-R" target="_blank">Click here to go to this group.</a></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Meteorological Analysis in Detail</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Florence has intensified to a category-4 hurricane and is forecast to maintain that intensity through landfall. The storm will increase in forward speed and approach the Carolinas over the next two days. The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory is shown below.</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="657" data-original-width="800" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHqJZijUg3kG0Q2zqaVboOQ0W3MUw2685nzEkHcVgMAX0uCd6kIf9UZcAGyjY_KyZEzUV2wVn7MdQcRqwxYNOKReCVuYM9v2KulRrSmVdfa5O5Gc-JOmKnxEKCjsxSssOcE5JISIO1PA/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+8.29.12+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Florence will be tracking over a large region with favorable conditions to support a category-4 hurricane or even strengthen to category 5. Wind shear remains relatively light in this region and Florence is forecast to track over a large area where sea surface temperatures reach 86 degrees F (30 degrees C). The image below, adapted from a tropical cyclones website at the CIMSS/ University of Wisconsin, depicts this large area of warm waters over which Florence will traverse.</span></div>
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<a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="375" data-original-width="530" height="452" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIv-Ngj0zgRyOo2uy9Ackbr7dRpXF-AfaU8dDj-3DONZcilDjCie23PYcnLE8TVNzpqIaA_FswuR94vu6VcSsvsXcQ6XjuGLftl2KUVrF6MKigBf1mgJlS9BAvPwqfSmppZ5Kv0_UtGik/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+8.38.22+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>CIMSS/ University of Wisconsin tropical cyclone website depicts that Florence will track over a large area of warm water exceeding 86 degrees F (30 degrees C). Storm position added by Hal Needham.</i><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Florence's Storm Surge Potential</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Florence threatens to generate a large and destructive storm surge near and to the east of the landfall location. Given the morning NHC advisory, this region will most likely occur along the North Carolina coast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Major (category 3 and 4) hurricanes in the Carolinas have historically generated storm surges in the 15-20 foot range. Hurricane Hugo (1989) made landfall as a category-4 hurricane and generated a 20-foot storm tide (surge + tide) above Mean Sea Level (MSL) in South Carolina. Hurricane Hazel (1954) made landfall as a category-4 hurricane near the border of North Carolina and South Carolina and generated a storm tide of 18 feet above Mean Low Water, but when this is converted to height above MSL is reduces to 15-16 feet. Hurricane Fran (1996) made landfall as a category-3 hurricane in this same region and also generated a 15-16 foot storm tide.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Storm tide maps of these three events are shown below:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4V4bdzhUO9ldQWcsDddRxYKPZX4MBWK6GiJC0lNVYedIam7aTMVF1tlcvsmkTwJwSssOiJUpPVlyK8D2S7-NghR065-TdFnc2XQetQmoMosVG4P7ARoYIiQ9a-lcD_lmEaFaciNtTXGA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+9.42.46+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="614" data-original-width="837" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4V4bdzhUO9ldQWcsDddRxYKPZX4MBWK6GiJC0lNVYedIam7aTMVF1tlcvsmkTwJwSssOiJUpPVlyK8D2S7-NghR065-TdFnc2XQetQmoMosVG4P7ARoYIiQ9a-lcD_lmEaFaciNtTXGA/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+9.42.46+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Hurricane Hugo (1989) made landfall as a category-4 hurricane in South Carolina and generated a 20-foot storm tide.</i><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0ho3F4RnEYqtrXagEQsVPmokImLVTCxTyKk7euURxcx15c7WDaVqj4RJmt7n-_2kiMCkqH8qv2Y8hwQTjIWje66qHJlX-w9SNiZpr_ypNS9J7x_Sta0Pq9FJGF8aknBuCiJsxKVqtJZU/s1600/Plot_Fran_180910b.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1200" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0ho3F4RnEYqtrXagEQsVPmokImLVTCxTyKk7euURxcx15c7WDaVqj4RJmt7n-_2kiMCkqH8qv2Y8hwQTjIWje66qHJlX-w9SNiZpr_ypNS9J7x_Sta0Pq9FJGF8aknBuCiJsxKVqtJZU/s640/Plot_Fran_180910b.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Hurricane Fran (1996) made landfall as a category-3 hurricane and generated a storm tide ranging from 15-16 feet in North Carolina.</i><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjD_Lv0XXxmy_eYWcf8yMqe05ID4lgbbWTZ8BITC-ifsqyZzyw8nT0XBp03GgbjXDjla0QdU0cYx6w5SK6OTQ7w3QDouS33BoYN1IH7tAwsG9h2PWhzwADHIb-qwRZcyv3U_4sTRkZ774/s1600/HAZEL.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="726" data-original-width="765" height="604" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhjD_Lv0XXxmy_eYWcf8yMqe05ID4lgbbWTZ8BITC-ifsqyZzyw8nT0XBp03GgbjXDjla0QdU0cYx6w5SK6OTQ7w3QDouS33BoYN1IH7tAwsG9h2PWhzwADHIb-qwRZcyv3U_4sTRkZ774/s640/HAZEL.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Hurricane Hazel (1954) generated a storm tide reaching 18 feet above Mean Low Water. When converted to Mean Sea Level, this storm tide reached 15-16 feet. Source: Harris (1963).</i> <i>The two lines near left of the map mark the boundaries of Hazel's eye, as it moved from south to north.</i>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Although category-4 hurricanes in this region generate large, destructive storm surges, Florence has two characteristics that may serve to somewhat limit storm surge flooding compared to other storms with comparable intensities.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Characteristic #1: Fast Forward Motion</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Florence is moving forward at 15 miles per hour and this rate will likely increase over the next two days. Fast-moving hurricanes have less potential to generate storm surge than slow moving hurricanes, because it takes time for strong winds to displace massive amounts of water.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This characteristic has one major caveat, however. The models are uncertain about the timing and location of Florence's stall, and last night's European model run suggests the stall could begin offshore. If the stall occurs offshore, this will serve to dramatically increase the storm surge magnitude and geographic extent of coastal flooding.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Characteristic #2: Relatively Small Wind Field Compared to Historic Hurricanes in Region</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A second factor that may limit the magnitude and geographic extent of Florence's storm surge is the relatively small wind field, at least compared to historic hurricanes that have impacted the Carolinas. I was lead author <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2013EI000558.1" target="_blank">on a paper</a> that found the radius of pre-landfall 50-knot (58 mile-per-hour) wind fields correlated better with storm surge heights than other wind fields.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">As Florence approaches the coastline, the NHC forecasts the radius of 50-knot winds to extend 80 nautical miles (nm) to the northeast. This extent of 50-knot winds is nearly half the extent observed in both Hugo (1989) and Fran (1996), which both generated 50-knot winds to extend 150 nm from the center of circulation.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgREKkhaVrMPbothsAiBfCCj1kz2hlcKdzU3JGj5EnfA8hlRjala04dEm06EseboK-x7gJ8VgskeBeQZGT0zdEVdbExSMoNAQrOzoHZ8_zwhrI4kFhhTVA8SwdgRx2FDof8VLycs6ewgm4/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+8.20.49+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="803" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgREKkhaVrMPbothsAiBfCCj1kz2hlcKdzU3JGj5EnfA8hlRjala04dEm06EseboK-x7gJ8VgskeBeQZGT0zdEVdbExSMoNAQrOzoHZ8_zwhrI4kFhhTVA8SwdgRx2FDof8VLycs6ewgm4/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+8.20.49+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Hurricane Hugo (1989) generated 50-knot (58-mph) winds 150 nautical miles from the center of circulation as it approached the coastline.</i><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUUIH6JAdWxf9ivu5YQcIYwDpxkF7fS6B1Fnp1OhL65iyQ5HRLsFw7yfy3GbNPVh9OKsjMLHTOc5T3E-n01vYi-5MKuLzOa9FZAYkERkZjItHiGrmhyphenhyphenovEJN8Kr6YN3HT3FoHXtZhhtEA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+8.20.58+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="686" data-original-width="801" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUUIH6JAdWxf9ivu5YQcIYwDpxkF7fS6B1Fnp1OhL65iyQ5HRLsFw7yfy3GbNPVh9OKsjMLHTOc5T3E-n01vYi-5MKuLzOa9FZAYkERkZjItHiGrmhyphenhyphenovEJN8Kr6YN3HT3FoHXtZhhtEA/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+8.20.58+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Hurricane Fran (1996) generated 50-knot (58-mph) winds 150 nautical miles from the center of circulation as it approached the coastline.</i><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_m23mX2vb27pnQ7FzrAElgcKWmnyExY1sFwwjyIUc1SRO2IkHavj_Iv6OxbYF0XZWP-qzFcXMyIN-riHxBnupb2i4UkgE7qZ-_dG_7btNPmyUMr8mH5BpGa18ebqpMDySh2-XvE8RAXs/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+8.21.08+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="800" height="544" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_m23mX2vb27pnQ7FzrAElgcKWmnyExY1sFwwjyIUc1SRO2IkHavj_Iv6OxbYF0XZWP-qzFcXMyIN-riHxBnupb2i4UkgE7qZ-_dG_7btNPmyUMr8mH5BpGa18ebqpMDySh2-XvE8RAXs/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+8.21.08+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>The NHC forecasts Hurricane Florence's radius of 50-knot (58-mph) winds to reach 80 nautical miles as it approaches the coastline (11pm advisory Mon Sep 10). However, if Florence stalls offshore, the wind field may drastically increase.</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Smaller wind fields can limit both the total magnitude and geographic extent of storm surge inundation, because strong winds reach the coast later than hurricanes with large wind fields. Also, strong winds in larger storms are displacing water over a greater area than smaller storms.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">If the NHC's size forecast holds and Florence can make it through landfall without stalling, I expect Florence could generate a localized storm surge level of approximately 14-16 feet east of the landfall location, but surge levels could taper off quickly outside this area.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">However, global models suggest that Florence's size could increase as it slows down, so if the stall and drift take place offshore, these size estimates could change dramatically. Florence is a powerful and dangerous hurricane and interests from South Carolina through the mid-Atlantic states should be on guard for coastal impacts.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Florence's Stall and Drift</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Global weather models agree that Florence will likely stall and drift later in the week. The timing and location of this stall is still quite uncertain.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">If this stall occurs while Florence is centered near the coast or just offshore, it will increase the storm surge extent and impacts dramatically. Monday evening's European model run forecasts Florence's stall to begin offshore. The images below show the unthinkable- Florence making landfall on Thursday evening (top image).....and Florence still making landfall on Friday evening (bottom image).</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="749" data-original-width="1026" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnDQW7Ial80oKS4nbS1uNIqZjP0cjVoNnpF5xkoNvKC6dAA2lgls7UiKrGzTlEofhFFfvxtw5QQF2CV_xKpFLs2pA-puZvYmDLHmNoEwGgrA4Yg0IFM9Ul63xPLjb8Hp0ud_zc-9CkMG4/s640/EURO2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKV4AB_Iui5nBTW3elkRwD6NT-MwHNsZTgZ0ZGJH_JQpiBgi42HBaRdvT9Hpnh20iCRWMOYHpU5Ht349FYl4i44iSXkeKdVQB43HBcsFTqz2cDXQ6Hs0AVQzzWHLSmm6OAkXNs-jNNmO8/s1600/EURO1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="749" data-original-width="1026" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKV4AB_Iui5nBTW3elkRwD6NT-MwHNsZTgZ0ZGJH_JQpiBgi42HBaRdvT9Hpnh20iCRWMOYHpU5Ht349FYl4i44iSXkeKdVQB43HBcsFTqz2cDXQ6Hs0AVQzzWHLSmm6OAkXNs-jNNmO8/s640/EURO1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>The European model run from Monday evening depicts Florence's stall starting offshore....with the storm making landfall on Thursday evening (above) and still making landfall Friday evening (below). Images courtesy: Tropical Tidbits/ Levi Cowan</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Regardless of where the stall takes place, the truly extraordinary impact from Florence will come from days of torrential rain near and far north of the storm's center. These impacts could extend as far north as Pennsylvania and New Jersey.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Unfortunately, this summer has been unusually wet along much of the East Coast, and soils are already saturated in many areas- particularly in Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Prolonged onshore winds will fill Chesapeake and Delaware Bays to capacity, slowing the drainage of heavy rainfall across a broad area.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Florence threatens to take us into unknown territory. NOAA's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows the potential of 10 or more inches of rain across a broad area from eastern North Carolina through much of Virginia over the next seven days, but these values could increase dramatically as this event unfolds.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1536674166" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="559" data-original-width="749" height="474" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgapstvqGeLdF7tDTz5pvpcengIX_EUT9J83iLCzPH6tMPUCxT8lDldbV_hzWyA5mzyr3_UHENaE-SC5E8V5gyOLbvmFzMYDjNgI0S-tKU4s965_rDnNsNV6q01X4M69WlvDx7yErvN6AA/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-11+at+9.56.24+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">It is common for QPF maps to start with a broad forecast of rain potential on a conservative basis. Much of the flooding from hurricanes can be localized from training of squalls over the same areas, and these localized maximums are unknown at this point and cannot be accurately forecast.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Last year during Hurricane Harvey, early precipitation forecasts depicted a large area of rain exceeding 15 inches.....in the end, training of rain bands over the same area generated rainfall totals exceeding 50 inches in the most extreme areas.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">It's certainly possible that Florence's rainfall totals could exceed 25 inches to the north of where the system stalls out. This scenario threatens to inflict an unprecedented catastrophe across a widespread area.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">REFERENCES</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">Harris, D.L., 1963. </span><i style="font-family: "times new roman";">Characteristics of the Hurricane Storm Surge. </i><span style="font-family: "times new roman";">United States Weather Bureau, Technical Paper No. 48. </span></span><br />
<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12553102291065440914noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-91344630758920566712018-09-05T07:28:00.001-05:002018-09-05T07:32:37.402-05:00Gordon's Storm Surge Ranged from 2-3 FeetTropical Storm Gordon made landfall near the Mississippi/ Alabama border last night. Highest storm surge levels ranged from 2-3 feet along the stretch of coast from Shell Beach, Louisiana through Apalachicola, Florida.<br />
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Gordon's track, lopsided nature and relatively fast forward speed kept storm surge levels modest through the region.<br />
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<a href="http://www.u-surge.net/"><img border="0" data-original-height="515" data-original-width="803" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-3O4CqAfVS3CSvw9E9I-4Ec7Z4His1vnlyJB04xQf6ZC8qrsXQPts9MrrRrNQ1VYLBVgpUznmqkqpdvkQfX0oN_9LgAGuUQ2OwJzH2oYbYb3K3mNMrGNONzYRiNlDmAcEY4medDUmZ_c/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-05+at+8.19.10+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Map of Gordon's peak storm surge along the Gulf Coast and Southeast Atlantic</i></div>
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Gordon generally maintained a forward speed of 14-15 mph as it tracked across the Gulf of Mexico. This is slightly higher-than-normal for the region and did not allow enough time for Gordon to generate substantial storm surge.<br />
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As Gordon approached landfall, the heavier convection was clearly located on the northern and eastern areas around the eye, with much less activity to the west and south. This kept storm surge levels relatively low to the west of the storm's track.<br />
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<a href="https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap"><img border="0" data-original-height="547" data-original-width="666" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivwQRUxqNGivgKoIKZpOQu4igGJAQouMM03gSB49U0GpN7wDUHVevYsyAPexcM_8qWRXV-8_qLmOolORWPDbu3r4JN46fgloKBG-8M6uHT5G9M5Ri-01_f3uEZTq1TNdWzqpPW4oXE1io/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-04+at+11.17.31+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>This radar image from Weather Underground shows the lopsided nature of Gordon's convection as it approached landfall. Most of the activity was located to the north and west of the eye, with less activity found on the south and west sides.</i></div>
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Had Gordon tracked farther west, making landfall in southwest Mississippi or southeast Louisiana, the stronger side of the storm would have pushed higher storm surge levels into Mississippi that would have likely reached the 3-5 foot range. However, Gordon's strongest winds impacted Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, which are less efficient than Mississippi and southeast Louisiana for generating storm surge.<br />
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Here are selected storm surge observations, measured in maximum difference between observed and predicted tide levels:<br />
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Apalachicola, Florida: 2.19 ft<br />
Panama City Beach, Florida: 2.0 ft<br />
Pensacola, Florida: 2.5 ft<br />
Dauphin Island, Alabama: 2.88 ft<br />
Mobile State Docks, Alabama: 2.53 ft<br />
Pascagoula, Mississippi: 1.87 ft<br />
Bay Waveland Yacht Club<br />
(Bay St Louis, Mississippi:) 2.0 ft<br />
Shell Beach, Louisiana: 2.88 ft<br />
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The next concern is inland flood potential, as Gordon's track is forecast to slow down. Even after Gordon is downgraded to a tropical depression, flood potential remains high from the Lower Mississippi Valley through much of Arkansas.<br />
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From a storm surge perspective, all eyes now turn to Florence, well offshore in the Atlantic. Both American and European models suggest it could approach the Eastern Seaboard as a powerful hurricane next week.<br />
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<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-59582736635529399652018-09-04T08:24:00.001-05:002018-09-04T08:29:59.344-05:00Gordon to Generate Storm Surge Flooding along Northern Gulf Coast<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Tropical Storm Gordon continues to track towards the Northern Gulf Coast....as of 0700 Eastern Time this morning, maximum sustained winds were 65 mph and movement was west-northwest at 15 mph. This means overnight Gordon strengthened and the forward speed slightly decreased. Gordon's forward speed is still faster than average for this region, but is forecast to continue decreasing through landfall.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/GOES16_sector_band.php?sector=gm&band=13&length=24"><img border="0" data-original-height="392" data-original-width="478" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGEll-DFju-cCCvKGm4SAl6MnY-wT22GJW5UK7FdmeXkZ2P5sP5_1aI7-8M4TU0aOId7W21xDLUPvmwTTypT1rUOXEgqLJQNDlQIPGGYfYebnAZKOr5GtY-zbTFYiUYmeREInIve_VjJw/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-04+at+7.23.50+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>GOES EAST Infrared Satellite Imagery shows that Gordon's convection has increased overnight. Darker colors indicate colder temperatures and higher cloud tops.</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Gordon is a relatively small tropical cyclone, with tropical storm force winds extending 80 miles from the center of circulation. The National Hurricane Center's surface wind field map, depicted below, shows the extent of Gordon's tropical storm force winds (shaded orange) - showing us that these winds cover a relatively small area. Small storm size and relatively fast forward speed will reduce the extent of storm surge flooding. </span></div>
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<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/091938.shtml?radii#contents"><img border="0" data-original-height="716" data-original-width="878" height="520" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgol4H1MqbT68ZUumHyssq0q5XjJQc3rNt32kkps0ucwkoxR97buafk-IVr8cpTpxrYLbvb_HAfjP8YlfYIyGmHAYOddkEsE19-JL80QqnHd2sG0qc_xD9z0il6xP8_gVFk5uwDRyTCpKg/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-04+at+9.07.28+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The National Hurricane Center forecasts storm surge inundation potential of 3-5 feet above normally dry ground from Shell Beach, Louisiana, through Dauphin Island, Alabama. This includes the entire Mississippi Coast. To the east, from Dauphin Island through Navarre, Florida, including Pensacola, storm surge potential is 2-4 feet. The same level is forecast from Shell Beach through the mouth of the Mississippi River.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Given Gordon's small size and forecast track, I would be surprised to see storm surge levels exceeding 3 feet east of the Florida/ Alabama line, and I expect any coastal flooding in the western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola, to be minor.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeqr68Ifblms17KBa3_PZHETI7HaipKOmaEk6-coX11vPLjBc-peUd788N_tJ40nu87UBSqzWdN84N5TRVcSJSD9TCgolwGgtGld6ucpNSKedhrOm2Zunwqe0yfdq1cON67as___9FZ4c/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-09-04+at+9.20.19+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="508" data-original-width="587" height="552" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeqr68Ifblms17KBa3_PZHETI7HaipKOmaEk6-coX11vPLjBc-peUd788N_tJ40nu87UBSqzWdN84N5TRVcSJSD9TCgolwGgtGld6ucpNSKedhrOm2Zunwqe0yfdq1cON67as___9FZ4c/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-04+at+9.20.19+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Storm surge inundation could reach 3-5 feet from Shell Beach, Louisiana through Dauphin Island, Alabama, including the entire Mississippi Coast. </i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">While Gordon should not generate an extensive storm surge, in terms of geographic extent, it is forecast to become a hurricane, with the center of circulation approaching the Mississippi Coast, one of the most efficient areas in the world for storm surge generation. Coastal residents should take caution- storm surge can build very rapidly in this region- particularly in Southeast Louisiana, like near Shell Beach, and the entire Mississippi Coast. Where hurricane-force winds are blowing on shore, storm surge levels can increase rapidly.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">A word of caution about Southeast Louisiana, from near the Rigolets to mouth of the Mississippi River....when hurricanes strike the Northern Gulf Coast, we generally think of onshore wind direction as blowing from south to north, however, in extreme southeast Louisiana, the coastline shape throws a wrench in this generalization. Where the Mississippi River Delta juts out into the Gulf of Mexico, strong northeast or even north winds are actually blowing "onshore" and displacing water from Mississippi Sound to wetland areas and small towns along the Mississippi River levee.</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.u-surge.net/"><img border="0" data-original-height="703" data-original-width="1105" height="406" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7_RRL96YqmcJdn1xfJCk_ZXJW7nb-iTktBWYKiHaVuyo9Wi9LPLAFD1t22EYYlAS7K1KoHBqb71QPgR4j0O0eSQkm29VcYfOPQODFEwFgxk4dIyFKKGN6HCIdRvuJ_RoXxY-HOFAtm7o/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-04+at+7.22.54+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>As of 0700AM Eastern Time on Tue Sep 04, storm surge levels have not exceeded 2 feet at any coastal location along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Visit the <a href="http://www.u-surge.net/">U-Surge Project</a> for updates.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">As Tropical Storm Ida made its closest approach to Mississippi Sound in November 2009, water levels at Shell Beach, Louisiana, actually peaked as winds turned from the north. The coastal geography in this area exposes Shell Beach to a north wind, pushing water into town.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">So friends in Southeast Louisiana- don't let your guard down if Gordon's center of circulation passes east of you....you can still generate quick storm surges on the "left" side of the storm.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Last night I looked into storm surge history for Lake Pontchartrain and I'm not concerned about substantial storm surge entering the Lake. We would need a slower moving storm centered south of New Orleans to push substantial water into the Lake, and Gordon's forecast track, small size and rapid forward speed will all serve to keep storm surge levels relatively low in this area.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">As of 0700AM Eastern Time, no coastal locations were observing a storm surge exceeding 2 feet along the U.S. Gulf Coast. I will keep this map updated on the U-Surge website as Gordon approaches the coast.</span></div>
Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-42985021480740997612018-09-03T10:57:00.002-05:002018-09-03T11:41:00.902-05:00Tropical Storm Gordon Eyes the Northern Gulf Coast and May Threaten Inland Areas Later in the Week<span style="font-size: large;">Tropical Storm Gordon forms over South Florida and is forecast to approach the Northern Gulf Coast...</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Key Messages:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1) Gordon may produce some localized flooding in South Florida on Labor Day;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2) Gordon will track northwest and impact Southeast Louisiana, Southern Mississippi and Southern Alabama late Tue/ early Wed;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">3) Gordon's movement is faster than average and its fast pace is forecast to continue. Faster moving storms do not have time to generate substantial storm surges, so expect coastal flooding to be minor from Southeast Louisiana through Mississippi and Alabama;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">4) Gordon is forecast to slowly strengthen over the Gulf and will likely bring tropical storm force winds near and east of the landfall location;</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">5) After Gordon is well inland it is forecast to become a tropical depression but slow down considerably. This may pose a threat for life-threatening flooding to inland locations later this week...</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnQFe4CYViTvGKEkgqrLvhA11ngoIW3PTq2vODyUkWwJWylnDTr3fwepgePSnt_5sUAzSG97vwP5jFp3PE4J_xVCiPXFkNhr6QRzK-jgfppJjUgYlwOOf2nM1DPJwpBGT4Z5SDNx3T-m8/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-09-03+at+10.07.34+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="459" data-original-width="357" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnQFe4CYViTvGKEkgqrLvhA11ngoIW3PTq2vODyUkWwJWylnDTr3fwepgePSnt_5sUAzSG97vwP5jFp3PE4J_xVCiPXFkNhr6QRzK-jgfppJjUgYlwOOf2nM1DPJwpBGT4Z5SDNx3T-m8/s400/Screen+Shot+2018-09-03+at+10.07.34+AM.png" width="310" /></a></div>
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<i>Gordon's rain bands were pushing into South Florida this morning...my location is shown as the blue dot on the map- we experienced some decent squalls this morning</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">In Detail:</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Tropical Storm Gordon formed this morning near where the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula meets the Florida Keys. I live in Southwest Miami, about 45 miles northeast of the center of circulation. We awoke to squally weather this morning, with periods of strong winds and heavy rain.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">As expected, some banding of the squalls is occurring in South Florida, from Key Largo to Palm Beach, and persistent squalls training over the same locations could quickly bring several inches of rain to locations in South Florida today. Expect street flooding in low-lying areas.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Gordon is moving towards the west-northwest at 17 mph, and is forecast to make a turn towards the northwest, enabling the storm to approach the Northern Gulf Coast by Tuesday night. This forward speed is faster than average, which is beneficial for several reasons. Fast-moving hurricanes and tropical storms do not have as much time to build storm surge, so expect coastal flooding to be minor near and to the east of landfall.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo38xuoewYdWT0WW_gEKNk-ClE4ti5MUVA3MggLUKcA0BUH_jNHyAK05YBBcz8YbPsP_YVl4p5reZlYmPngIfWqenAS2Rd70dbXp8hyphenhyphenCJXw3VzWd2r36bsB75M-peHYAjJetoQk2mxTow/s1600/FLOOD_PIC.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjo38xuoewYdWT0WW_gEKNk-ClE4ti5MUVA3MggLUKcA0BUH_jNHyAK05YBBcz8YbPsP_YVl4p5reZlYmPngIfWqenAS2Rd70dbXp8hyphenhyphenCJXw3VzWd2r36bsB75M-peHYAjJetoQk2mxTow/s400/FLOOD_PIC.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i>Gordon's persistent squalls have generated some street flooding in South Florida this morning. I took this picture in the Kendall area of Miami. Photo: Hal Needham</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Also, in recent years we have experienced several hurricanes/ tropical storms stalling out near the coastline, enabling these storms to dump massive amounts of rain just inland and produce compound flooding from rain and storm surge. Hurricane Harvey was a classic example of this.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Gordon is forecast to move quickly across the Gulf of Mexico and maintain a fast pace through the time of landfall. This is great news for minimizing flood impacts from both storm surge and heavy rain.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Unfortunately, Gordon is forecast to slow down considerably later this week. Although Gordon will likely be downgraded to a tropical depression and be centered well inland by the time this happens, life-threatening flooding is a potential threat across a swath from eastern Oklahoma through Arkansas and Northern Louisiana later in the week.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents"><img border="0" data-original-height="723" data-original-width="886" height="522" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiupYKXaBDpJPDbI5fIBiTFEOGhZkIX9ZG13HvP4WfjsbaJPgDklpunw6JIxSp9dD3qJlv03cQRSj8VirRC31fAC9utFOuU_ZYpdgc5p6JXKLmA5Pojxp4mgL_avB2E0VCO9lJi9qJ917I/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-03+at+11.52.00+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>The National Hurricane Center 11AM Eastern advisory on Mon Sep 3 forecasts Gordon to track near the Northern Gulf Coast at a rapid pace and then slow down considerably after being downgraded to a tropical depression later this week</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">If Gordon does indeed stall once it is inland, the greatest threat to life and property would likely be from inland flooding hundreds of miles from the Gulf Coast.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">We should note that Gordon comes on the heels of substantial rainfall in portions of Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana. Some locations in Southeast Texas have picked up 3-5 inches of rain in the past 24 hours, from Galveston Bay through the Louisiana border.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn3Zh6ueiEV__70Kb7_mNkm-WAze-buyNMDcfG5eVZJiVJzWK7Ta7G6bDa-KUQR2bH5FMARBWIQlSIewbDTo1kLEFsXaIOQLgnYrwbRdT6S02oauC8PHvkel0RWV9XVrvzVfMeXnYY_Gc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-09-03+at+12.34.23+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="336" data-original-width="292" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn3Zh6ueiEV__70Kb7_mNkm-WAze-buyNMDcfG5eVZJiVJzWK7Ta7G6bDa-KUQR2bH5FMARBWIQlSIewbDTo1kLEFsXaIOQLgnYrwbRdT6S02oauC8PHvkel0RWV9XVrvzVfMeXnYY_Gc/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-03+at+12.34.23+PM.png" width="555" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><i>Even before Gordon's approach to the Northern Gulf Coast, portions of SE Texas and SW Louisiana have observed big-time rains, with some areas observing 3-5" over the past 24 hours. It appears that Gordon's heaviest rain will pass east and north of this area. Source: National Weather Service Radar.</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">It appears that Gordon will stay far enough east that torrential rains will hopefully not be repeated for SW Louisiana and SE Texas. However, later in the week, as Gordon slows down, things could get interesting for Northeast Texas, Northern Louisiana, Arkansas and Oklahoma.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml"><img border="0" data-original-height="561" data-original-width="748" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheUVdNR7LkainNidAn5jEe6bFe9Zpa27cx_DQKEdTIdIxL4Ou68S5THb-pqMIhL-xGB3MwjkTK4wOZiLd2XFOCMaqERtxG4ECc4Er46LvX67mnTd7Zju2N0qEiRQJxjdZuMcQBGyQakS4/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-09-03+at+12.23.56+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">NOAA's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) rainfall map (above) shows rain potential for the next 7 days (Mon Sep 3- Mon Sep 10). Notice that the heaviest rain bypasses Arkansas. However, if Gordon slows down and tracks through SW Arkansas as a tropical depression, we have to wonder if the updated forecast will dramatically increase the rainfall in that state. We will see how things play out through the week.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Gordon will likely bring tropical storm force winds to locations near and east of the landfall location on Tuesday night. While this is better news than hurricane-force winds, tropical storm force winds can still cause some problems. Expect downed trees, loss of power and even minor structural damage on items like sheds, car ports and other structural features that are not secured.</span></div>
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<i>Gordon threatens to produce flood and wind impacts from Florida through the Northern Gulf Coast and even the Mississippi River Valley/ Southern Plains later in the week</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Last year during Hurricane Harvey I stayed on Galveston Island. Galveston's peak sustained (10-min) winds were 39 mph, which is the minimum threshold for tropical storm force winds. The highest wind gust (2-min) was 49 mph. While these winds don't sound extraordinary, they caused a loud whistling sound through the power lines and brought down a car port on some cars in a nearby apartment complex.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZK2dukPjNZ4ASiwooMw43aiuAn1R13NE_L1YtKfLGuh95Xq-YM5OX1joGDqxp0oiAiM3iXxeok4FXFpYAUrqhR80WAtbEIglt0pvgZxQyzEmaKnQy_y0tUXv7MNubkdhpx83Qn2AbV7w/s1600/IMG_5265.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZK2dukPjNZ4ASiwooMw43aiuAn1R13NE_L1YtKfLGuh95Xq-YM5OX1joGDqxp0oiAiM3iXxeok4FXFpYAUrqhR80WAtbEIglt0pvgZxQyzEmaKnQy_y0tUXv7MNubkdhpx83Qn2AbV7w/s640/IMG_5265.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Tropical storm force winds tore down a carport on Galveston Island during Hurricane Harvey on August 27, 2018. While not as destructive as hurricane-force winds, tropical storm force winds can still cause some structural damage, bring down trees and cause power outages. Photos: Hal Needham</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I have been receiving messages from dear friends in Louisiana and Texas over the past day. Given the forecast track, I expect minimal storm impacts for Baton Rouge and points west along the Gulf Coast, but inland flooding could spread as far west as Oklahoma later this week.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I will post some maps soon on Gordon's storm surge potential, and, like other storms, I will create a map that enables us to get a birds-eye-view of Gordon's storm surge as it approaches the coast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Feel free to comment on this blog or email me at hal@marineweatherandclimate.com if you would like to reach out.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Stay safe everyone!</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Hurricane Hal</span><br />
<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-66198614217063310282018-05-28T06:22:00.002-05:002018-05-28T06:37:02.775-05:00Compound Flood Threat from Surge and Rain along Florida Panhandle Today<div class="MsoNormal">
<u><b><span style="font-size: large;">Key Message</span></b><o:p></o:p></u></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">While Alberto’s highest storm surge levels so far have been
observed between 2-3 feet in Cedar Key and Apalachicola, a rapid water level
rise and higher storm surge levels are possible near and east of the landfall
location this afternoon. The area threatened by sudden storm surge inundation
includes Panama City and Panama City Beach, where winds should rapidly shift from offshore to onshore as Alberto approaches landfall. Prolonged onshore winds in this region near and after the time of landfall will keep storm surge levels elevated and inhibit the drainage of heavy rainfall, increasing the flood threat.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<u><b><span style="font-size: large;">Summary</span></b><o:p></o:p></u></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Subtropical Storm Alberto has maintained a maximum sustained
wind speed of approximately 65 mph overnight, as the center of circulation has
slowed down and followed more of a northwest track. As of 400AM CDT the center
of circulation was approximately 125 miles south of Destin, Florida. On its
current path, the center of Alberto’s circulation should pass south of Panama
City, with a landfall between Pensacola and Panama City this afternoon.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="479" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUhP9IdR-cOy8aZfx7ik3JAo5twIyOKjtUAJjqBsGQxoapo2sDCOOW53nvRfiCTrnqIKk3aAqYMADZQMxgHptDaT5kucmzxtuWZIdrc6S1blC0m3a3oZIbM690kAHE6H6evRCl3x5lKTs/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-05-28+at+7.15.41+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>The center of Alberto's circulation is visible south of the Destin/ Panama City region in this 2 km resolution infrared satellite imagery from the <a href="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/#">University of Wisconsin/ CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Group</a>. </i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The highest coastal flood observations have been offset to
the east, where onshore winds have generated storm surge between 2-3 ft. The
NOAA tide gauge at Apalachicola observed a storm surge of 2.3 ft at 100AM EDT. As
high tide approached, storm surge levels dropped below 2 ft. The NOAA tide
gauge at Cedar Key reported a storm surge of 2.68 ft at 912PM EDT. Fortunately,
this was around the time of low tide.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://www.u-surge.net/ts-alberto.html"><img border="0" data-original-height="615" data-original-width="955" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqv3k5M0Z3vM_7JaOSqx3JbtNl_blrf-Mrhfbf0ktQ5fuZHgqipBgRQpPrYyT-n1wEcWlbzxXU5iDhHS8sCfcdvxMLUL04T5sseEZJzUQTMDMzeAJkwdzNgj1yi288abwIwQPcaczx5t0/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-05-28+at+6.08.25+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<o:p><i>As of 600AM EDT, Alberto's storm surge has exceeded 2 ft at Apalachicola and Cedar Key, Florida.</i></o:p></div>
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<o:p><i><br /></i></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Total storm tide levels (storm surge + tide) at Cedar Key
reached 2.62 ft at 1:30AM EDT and 2.58 ft at Apalachicola at 5:36AM EDT on Mon
May 27. Coastal flood levels likely reached even higher levels between these
two gauges, as southerly winds in this region efficiently pile up storm surge
near the northern coast of Apalachee Bay, near St Marks.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">The </span><a href="http://www.u-surge.net/">U-Surge project</a><span style="font-size: large;"> has identified high water marks from 35 hurricanes and tropical storms at Cedar Key since 1880. Alberto’s storm tide ranks 29</span><sup>th</sup><span style="font-size: large;"> on the list. The high watermark in Apalachicola ranks 32</span><sup>nd</sup><span style="font-size: large;"> among the 41 observed in events in </span><a href="http://www.u-surge.net/">U-Surge</a><span style="font-size: large;"> since 1900.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.u-surge.net/ts-alberto.html"><img border="0" data-original-height="621" data-original-width="922" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi21KWdaPTSAQ3n76atUHlNV1zjHcoKr3aO1ziIPTq5ztRkpyujjnd7oSVmhRgmLm-xASwspijlHnSdjrPYe0SJdvOpz7ExL22coRLbT0-1pLUKfRQE9m5u5R3Swp-aRJRh3ZLXe5JMRms/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-05-28+at+7.03.33+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Subtropical Storm Alberto has generated a 2.62-ft storm tide at Cedar Key, Florida, which ranks 29th out of high watermarks from 35 hurricanes and tropical storms since 1880, according to the <a href="http://www.u-surge.net/">U-Surge Project</a>.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Storm surge levels have remained less than two feet above
normal in the Panama City area, as winds in the region have been blowing offshore at less than 20 mph overnight. However, a rapid water level rise
is possible along this section of coast around the time of landfall, as winds
shift from offshore to onshore.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The National Hurricane Center has issued a storm surge watch
for Panama City, Panama City Beach, Mexico Beach, Lynn Haven and Bayou George,
as the potential exists for 2-4 feet of storm surge inundation ABOVE GROUND LEVEL according to a <a href="https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=FLZ112&warncounty=FLC005&firewxzone=FLZ112&local_place1=Springfield%20FL&product1=Storm+Surge+Watch&lat=30.1665&lon=-85.6066">statement from the National Weather Service in Tallahassee</a>.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6DPdSLCXBSzoNF-Z9J-94I0SOj7uPAGSTZZkF9wWP4HCAZub3e5lOLmAHN1_ZsZM3P677w6ZLlwLljO59dJ8pxHYQeqYhCSIBCgcDJOORtwZ_uapYSzUmRapsZ2in806B-5V-kDkb_bA/s1600/Screen+Shot+2018-05-28+at+7.11.21+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="996" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6DPdSLCXBSzoNF-Z9J-94I0SOj7uPAGSTZZkF9wWP4HCAZub3e5lOLmAHN1_ZsZM3P677w6ZLlwLljO59dJ8pxHYQeqYhCSIBCgcDJOORtwZ_uapYSzUmRapsZ2in806B-5V-kDkb_bA/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-05-28+at+7.11.21+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>While storm surge has not yet overwashed the beach in Panama City, Florida, Alberto threatens this region with a rapid water-level rise closer to the time of landfall this afternoon. <span style="font-size: x-small;">Image: WPMI/ WLUK-TV Fox 11.</span></i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Flash flooding is a real threat, particularly east of Alberto's track, where persistent onshore winds will generate a prolonged storm surge, which will inhibit the drainage of heavy rainfall. The National Hurricane Center forecasts more than 4 inches of rain to fall across portions of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/084504.shtml?rainqpf#contents"><img border="0" data-original-height="732" data-original-width="929" height="504" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSKyj0pKIOY_FAOw-3ulGPxga8tKWjHPinANZq6vSnK1GMV1wac2J6oqiDxZtceodkva86Ft3vrjY2-O7s5ENQDFuTuoE2Nj-ooRUvO3Lqj5Nz0FRwApPmDyyrnFtWw8cdce6BGjt6qEw/s640/Screen+Shot+2018-05-28+at+7.26.14+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>The National Hurricane Center forecasts more than 4 inches of rain to fall across portions of the Florida Panhandle and Alabama. Where prolonged onshore winds keep storm surge levels elevated east of Alberto's track, drainage of heavy rainfall will be inhibited, leading to greater flood threat.</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
<span style="font-size: large;">Although Alberto is not forecast to reach hurricane strength
before making landfall, the notion of a May hurricane striking the Florida
Panhandle and Apalachee Bay region takes our thoughts back to Hurricane “Amanda”
of 1863, the only May hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. The BAMS <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00171.1">paper published by Chenoweth and Mock</a> on this storm is a great read on this Memorial Day, as it
covers both long-forgotten hurricane history and U.S. military history. The
authors named the hurricane “Amanda” after a Union ship that was driven ashore
during the Civil War.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">I find Amanda a fitting name, as our current naming convention is alphabetical and a tropical cyclone forming in the Gulf of Mexico in May will likely start with the letter "A" (unless it's the second named storm).</span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Looking beyond the Gulf Coast, a devastating flash flood tore
through Ellicott City, Maryland, yesterday, for the second time in two years. Floodwaters
threatened both life and property following torrential rains.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03607174093301434905noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-70908699640009627562017-10-08T05:24:00.004-05:002017-10-08T05:25:26.099-05:00Nate's Storm Surge Exceeds 6 ft in SE Mississippi<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgichVw-oweWotuZ6SOH6UGw9ksyldsmw4OHLWOkiiB9CgzSkW9cA6bWqBfWI-lbjUZwqUT2PoJZ8h8wjynyFYtJLVJQzP8nSgovysH-4sVyemLVujnh2UUzkWl59KTRKfeVkpn45bP9zE/s1600/NATE_5AM_Oct8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="632" data-original-width="983" height="410" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgichVw-oweWotuZ6SOH6UGw9ksyldsmw4OHLWOkiiB9CgzSkW9cA6bWqBfWI-lbjUZwqUT2PoJZ8h8wjynyFYtJLVJQzP8nSgovysH-4sVyemLVujnh2UUzkWl59KTRKfeVkpn45bP9zE/s640/NATE_5AM_Oct8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Hurricane Nate's storm surge has exceeded 6 ft in SE Mississippi, according to a NOAA tide gauge at Pascagoula. Video footage on social media depicts multiple feet of storm surge inundating casinos in Biloxi.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Other tide gauges in the region reported maximum storm surge levels reaching 4-6 feet, including Shell Beach, Louisiana, Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi, and Mobile State Docks along the Mobile, Alabama, waterfront.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Nate made landfall as a category-1 hurricane twice. The first landfall occurred in southeast Louisiana, near the mouth of the Mississippi River, and the second landfall occurred near Biloxi, Mississippi. The 400AM Central Time advisory from the National Hurricane Center downgrades Nate to a tropical storm, but beware of continued strong squalls to the east of the center of circulation.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Storm surge levels should drop through the morning along the northern Gulf Coast.</span></div>
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<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12553102291065440914noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-38584870186907936302017-10-07T21:40:00.002-05:002017-10-07T22:15:49.113-05:00Hurricane Nate Storm Surge Update<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTAMYcgSPqRxLUNDJ_-DKjQpHq5wFrDkI6ztfoJNDqHXMcFrL9-fop9RczwQh_WrIZeB2PG3LctsL4LRgUKpR7QkVKte6QaYOFavxsVHnQ4woo172ZHFk4QVb_vkVBkhJ5N-CwZXdEAOY/s1600/NATE_9PMD.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="620" data-original-width="962" height="412" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTAMYcgSPqRxLUNDJ_-DKjQpHq5wFrDkI6ztfoJNDqHXMcFrL9-fop9RczwQh_WrIZeB2PG3LctsL4LRgUKpR7QkVKte6QaYOFavxsVHnQ4woo172ZHFk4QVb_vkVBkhJ5N-CwZXdEAOY/s640/NATE_9PMD.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">As of 900PM Central Time, Hurricane Nate has generated a widespread 2-4 ft storm surge along the Gulf Coast. Peak surge levels have now exceeded 4 ft at Shell Beach, Louisiana, and continue to rise in this location.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Expect maximum storm surge levels to reach 4-7 ft east of the Mississippi River in SE Louisiana, as well as the Mississippi Coast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">These storm surge levels do NOT include normal astronomical tides, which are peaking this weekend in the region due to the full moon. These king tides are among the highest tides of the year, and are not included in these storm surge observations.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Therefore, give a buffer for additional flooding because tides would normally be unusually high even if there wasn't a hurricane in the Gulf.</span></div>
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<br />Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12553102291065440914noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-22313798783641441012017-10-07T12:55:00.001-05:002017-10-07T13:24:47.419-05:00NHC Wildly Over-predicts Nate's Storm Surge Potential<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">As Hurricane Nate races towards the northern Gulf Coast, the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/071737.shtml?" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center's (NHC) 1PM (Central Time)</a> advisory predicts maximum storm surge levels to reach 7-11 feet from the Mouth of the Mississippi River east to the Mississippi/ Alabama border, 6-9 feet along the Alabama Coast, and 4-6 feet for the Western Florida Panhandle, including Pensacola, as well as the area west of the Mississippi River, to Morgan City, Louisiana.</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/16L/imagery/rgb0.gif" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="720" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcjr375x1622pxAwhC9LxHwBGvobjMZpbbMTZLbc18JwuZuUF_bBG51yrG-9Cr3n04PN7N8neJk9ObbsjDEoWzCHJHsQsbPnzIwhkIVGAZwMIeUmZbqey2A8R9Zy8nbbUlyqDNd9nLLjw/s640/NATE_SAT.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>Visible satellite image of Hurricane Nate as of 11:15AM Central Time on Sat Oct 7, 2017</i></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Although Nate is forecast to make landfall as a category-2 hurricane, these estimates are wildly over-estimated for several reasons:</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">1) Nate is RACING to the coast at an incredible 25 mph. This is more than twice the forward speed at which hurricanes typically approach the coast in this part of the world. Strong onshore winds need ample time to push water towards the coast, and Nate's rapid forward speed means it will make landfall before it has the chance to generate a substantial storm surge.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">2) Nate is strengthening as it approaches the coast. I was lead author on a <a href="http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2013EI000527.1" target="_blank">paper published three years ago</a> that found storm surge correlates better with pre-landfall wind speeds than wind speeds at landfall, with the optimal correlation occurring 18 hours before landfall. So even if Nate makes landfall as a category-2 hurricane, 18 hours before landfall wind speeds were around 80-85 mph, making it an "average" category-1 hurricane when the time was most important for storm surge generation.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">3) Nate's wind field is small. As of the 1PM Central Time advisory, hurricane-force winds extended only 35 miles from the center of circulation and tropical storm force winds extended 125 miles (see graphic below). </span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjekFPR1PKtmFRLJwdQsIhE2nGjz9bKTfWmWdfN0mM18mi18mb3NYpCPKMxBT5lhfKmznfFR1eu-DS6JQLKMTGwqMpV944nddPgjgMR3R2nnoY07WweyVz4T9z8GqFPiAffEWz4BH3jVZM/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-10-07+at+12.31.56+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="236" data-original-width="341" height="442" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjekFPR1PKtmFRLJwdQsIhE2nGjz9bKTfWmWdfN0mM18mi18mb3NYpCPKMxBT5lhfKmznfFR1eu-DS6JQLKMTGwqMpV944nddPgjgMR3R2nnoY07WweyVz4T9z8GqFPiAffEWz4BH3jVZM/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-10-07+at+12.31.56+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i>Nate's small wind field will keep it from generating a massive storm surge. This <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152016.shtml?cone#contents" target="_blank">graphic from the NHC</a> depicts hurricane-force winds as red and tropical storm force winds as light orange, as of 10AM Central Time on Sat Oct 7.</i></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Compare that with Hurricane Ike (2008), which approached the Upper Texas Coast as a high-end category-2 hurricane with hurricane-force winds extending <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al09/al092008.public.048.shtml?" target="_blank">120 miles and tropical storm force winds extending 275 miles </a>from the center of circulation, enabling Ike to generate a massive storm surge.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">4) Nate's wind field has consistently been asymmetric, or offset, during it's journey through the Yucatan Channel and into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. Strongest winds have been offset to the east of the center. Given the predicted track, maximum sustained winds should stay east of the Louisiana Delta, and I cannot understand the rational for predicting 4-6 feet of storm surge west of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi River Delta does a good job of protecting points west, like Grand Isle and Morgan City, from storm surge even in a well-organized system- it is very unlikely that Nate will generate a storm surge higher than 3 ft in these areas.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Marine Weather and Climate runs the <a href="http://www.u-surge.net/" target="_blank">U-Surge project</a>, which essentially serves as the U.S. storm surge database. I have personally been constructing storm surge databases for the past 10 years, and, based on that work, I would like to offer a storm surge forecast of my own, from a data-driven perspective.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Here is a comparison of my Marine Weather and Climate storm surge forecast compared to the NHC forecast, from west to east:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf_QFiJ42QXjSccsYo1yLx7_NXq8uphfx4aSgk0E2coADJXuzm8v5d3wgHCQCFWIs-AR2t56UKn8wKIjsBKl7QY0uYJMwOPnX0pFfIOWh8uAZiZLo19rpYinJElVTZOtFCJvPNpHJKPKI/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-10-07+at+1.17.18+PM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="212" data-original-width="718" height="188" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgf_QFiJ42QXjSccsYo1yLx7_NXq8uphfx4aSgk0E2coADJXuzm8v5d3wgHCQCFWIs-AR2t56UKn8wKIjsBKl7QY0uYJMwOPnX0pFfIOWh8uAZiZLo19rpYinJElVTZOtFCJvPNpHJKPKI/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-10-07+at+1.17.18+PM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Much thanks to the NHC for their hard work and for rolling out improved products in recent years. I like what they do and value their work.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">I believe in the power of having multiple voices/ forecasts as a big storm approaches. This helps the public discern levels of certainty for a given hazard, like rainfall, wind or storm surge. If all forecasters provide the same message, certainty is higher than if different messages are heard.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">I realize I will probably get my "hand slapped" for publicly disagreeing with the NHC on Nate's storm surge potential. In the days leading up to Harvey I got my hand slapped for not sticking with "one consistent message" when I published a blog post titled, <a href="http://hurricanehalssb.blogspot.com/2017/08/harveys-compound-rain-surge-flooding.html" target="_blank">"Harvey's Compound Rain/ Surge Flooding Could be Catastrophic and Underestimated- Especially along the Houston-Galveston Corridor"</a>, 36 hours before all hell broke loose in Houston.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">However, Harvey was unbelievably catastrophic in my neck of the woods, and I have no regrets whatsoever for speaking my mind. For every hate message, I received hundreds of messages from people thanking me for speaking clearly and truthfully, and many thanking me for helping them make "life-saving decisions". Harvey taught me to speak my mind and not care what people think.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">I do realize the NHC errs on the side of over-estimating storm surge potential to encourage people to evacuate and take precautions, but the down side to this is that it lowers public confidence when forecasts are consistently more extreme than the reality on the ground.</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">I believe the best approach is to predict hazards as accurately as possible and communicate this as clearly as possible with the public. Most people are smart and they will do what is necessary to protect their families and communities when given clear, accurate predictions.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">For questions or comments on Nate's storm surge, you can reach me at: hal@marineweatherandclimate.com.</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">-HH</span></div>
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Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12553102291065440914noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1514799156080772243.post-67029982302116855682017-09-12T09:05:00.002-05:002017-09-13T07:43:50.508-05:00Four Surges in One - Perspective on Irma's Wild Coastal Flooding<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Although Hurricane Irma made landfall in the Lower Florida Keys as a category-4 hurricane, the massive storm generated wild coastal flooding patterns throughout the Florida peninsula, Georgia and South Carolina. Here's a recap on Irma's storm surge.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Peak Surge Levels</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The map below depicts Irma's peak storm surge levels, with storm surge representing the difference in observed and predicted water levels based on normal astronomical tides. The highest observed storm surge levels exceeded 6 feet in places near the Florida/ Georgia border, like Fernandina Beach and Mayport, while water levels in a wider area from east-central Florida through South Carolina, as well as portions of southwest Florida, observed surge levels exceeding 4 feet.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcNkFznJjyhObY6T0UYY3hbAqjsUd9-UY8V9E0T3D9DhUT0t3VQy_ZewK63TrYU2TNC-Lv15SWqfgrAigHSb3VzExPFYfgjdKoZ41-f7UUd6rXajfT0IZk5_N-fZgl2-bOCCfcRiHHYVQ/s1600/IRMA_PEAK3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="1181" height="436" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcNkFznJjyhObY6T0UYY3hbAqjsUd9-UY8V9E0T3D9DhUT0t3VQy_ZewK63TrYU2TNC-Lv15SWqfgrAigHSb3VzExPFYfgjdKoZ41-f7UUd6rXajfT0IZk5_N-fZgl2-bOCCfcRiHHYVQ/s640/IRMA_PEAK3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<i>Map of maximum storm surge data. Map created by Dr. Hal Needham (Marine Weather and Climate/ U-Surge), data provided by <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">NOAA Tides and Currents</a>.</i><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">As people are just returning to the worst-hit areas of the Florida Keys and southwest Florida, maximum storm surge areas are still being reported. The table below provides the mapped data in tabular form.</span></div>
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<strong style="color: #676767; font-family: roboto, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #515151; font-size: large;">Storm surge observations for Hurricane Irma</span></span></strong><br />
<strong style="color: #676767; font-family: roboto, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #515151; font-size: large;">Effective Tue Sep 12 at 06:00AM Eastern Time</span></span></strong><br />
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<span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif; font-size: large; letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;"><strong>Storm Surge (water level above normal astronomical tides)<br /><br />NOAA Tides and Currents Tide Gauges (preliminary water levels)<br /><br />Fernandina Beach, FL: 7.75 ft</strong></span><br />
<span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif; font-size: large; letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;"><strong><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">Mayport, FL: 6.42 ft</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">Fort Pulaski, GA: 5.63 ft</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">Naples, FL: 5.14 ft</span></span></strong></span><br />
<span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif; font-size: large; letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;"><strong>Charleston, SC: 4.87 ft<br /><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">Trident Pier, FL: 4.43 ft</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">Fort Myers, FL: 4.25 ft</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">Virginia Key, FL: 3.91 ft</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">Key West, FL: 3.30 ft</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">Old Port Tampa, FL: 3.17 ft</span></span></strong></span><br />
<span style="color: #2a2a2a; font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif; font-size: large; letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;"><strong>Springmaid Pier, SC: 3.04 ft<br /><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">Vaca Key, FL: 2.76 ft</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">Cedar Key, FL: 2.50 ft</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">Lake Worth, FL: 2.23 ft</span></span><br /><span style="font-family: "roboto" , sans-serif;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.3199999928474426px;">St. Petersburg, FL: 1.96 ft </span></span></strong></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Irma's large size and shore-parallel track through southwest Florida, enabled the storm to generate four distinct storm surge events in different regions. Here's a summary below:</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-size: x-large;">Florida Keys</span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq1hkhJFLWELE9uYuhyphenhyphen5eH40QW-n9CwRwqYadDDVcXBqvT3A3FY6N26emKY1WW6ecRpjbqC2rf4Q2F9QeBwyYKeyqxfCvFAS4nOcdqzGVJ2JT_Pu6rb7hugonlHpQOcGtN7UDtghjTs_Y/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+1.02.49+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="399" data-original-width="521" height="489" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq1hkhJFLWELE9uYuhyphenhyphen5eH40QW-n9CwRwqYadDDVcXBqvT3A3FY6N26emKY1WW6ecRpjbqC2rf4Q2F9QeBwyYKeyqxfCvFAS4nOcdqzGVJ2JT_Pu6rb7hugonlHpQOcGtN7UDtghjTs_Y/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+1.02.49+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key, in the Lower Florida Keys, as a category-4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph on <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/al11/al112017.update.09101318.shtml?" target="_blank">Sun Sep 10 at approximately 9:10AM Eastern Time</a>.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">NOAA tide gauges to the west (Key West) and east (Vaca Key) Irma remained more-or-less operational throughout the storm's passage, although the gauge at Key West has been reporting data intermittently. Surge levels at both sites increased substantially after Irma's eye passed and winds changed direction. As Irma approached, prolonged winds were blowing from east-to west across the Keys, but winds suddenly reversed from west-to-east after the eye passage. Maximum surge levels at both Key West and Vaca Key remained less than 4 feet.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Storm surge levels are highly localized, particularly in island chains, where two locations just several miles apart border water in different directions. For example, the NOAA tide gauge at Key West is located near the western end of the island, making it most susceptible to storm surge generated by a strong west wind.</span></div>
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<a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="640" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7EAHVXdihAnxLd1SeAWoH3Nyxd9Hrjhndb5X0EODIIEPBCThhidaHJvNeHFfn07Lu7dF7Lx2Kv1nXtk32onGH-Vs64_7vdi4rvVvbsDOBpZ9_EVsgJy5U_LQvFdZJp-2Lw36ghKQrkZA/s640/KEYWEST.jpg" width="480" /></a> </div>
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<a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8724580" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="203" data-original-width="418" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYIWZWCs44yQHNMbZjQbiqSop6LNa8s8uULAFSPWjET4WC7uSZajSoPvKgXd6yOK_BbPdAMdXPo_I484RdfWBA1CjmJ0kDERkAtDPiJ2HiORwwutEQpZjOeb4IoYiFQ-2YA5kTkqxVNxc/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+7.26.02+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>NOAA's Key West tide gauge is located near the western end of the island, making it most susceptible to strong winds approaching the island from the west.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Based on Irma's track, the highest storm surge levels in the Keys, would have likely occurred near Cudjoe Key, Big Pine Key and Marathon. Initial rumors of a 15-foot storm tide (storm surge + tide) circulating social media remain unverified and were likely exaggerated. However, numerous images of sail boats swept onto the Overseas Highway (Hwy 1) provide evidence of a powerful storm surge that swept through the islands.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">While spending time on Monday evening on social media groups focused on connecting locals from the Florida Keys, I noticed that numerous posts suggested a peak storm surge in the range of 5-6 feet at Cudjoe Key. However, this information was still speculative, as evacuees were not allowed back into the region yet and information from the Keys to the outside world was limited, often relying on satellite phones.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.facebook.com/keywestsmuggler/" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="453" data-original-width="480" height="604" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5MVP3JvxhVQso8MUsQ0Wos3eEq3GvWi8ozCSxJ0F41tfaqXz8wH_cNnqAQYmp38jFTTcp3aGsUB_ABrR6b3337nXE9jOh-Tz1XcraWHPYxz_ZNInHp0m6zIB1Bjp-4B3cmZL3TX19uzc/s640/KEYS1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Although storm surge levels at Key West remained below 4 ft, the force of water pounding over the seawall was powerful enough to peel the paint off the famous "Southernmost Point" monument. </i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Keep in mind that along island chains, storm surge values are extremely localized. Water displaced from a distance can pass between islands, but where a hurricane's eyewall is engaged on an island, surge levels will quickly spike, sometimes reaching levels twice as high as areas just 10-15 miles away.</span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">Authorities are letting residents back into the Lower and Middle Keys today, so we should know more about the wind and storm surge impacts soon.</span><br />
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<a href="https://www.facebook.com/anthonypd2/videos_by" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="523" data-original-width="499" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzgC_4Yx-TUPy54hmHGt2GWH-IRV4M3qemlh23PkVRpY-xc9AfQDpEsXSXmyW4cB33W0NssLnHoCaOqkqoujjWDgUy4S-jkfwIgY6LvIANS2ecAhVuYLvMi4F7VHhckSJYsSjP_VVyNpc/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+7.57.19+AM.png" width="609" /></a></div>
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<i>Video posted by Anthony Paul Davis shows storm surge flooding in Marathon, Florida.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>Florida West Coast</b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5WcLtbb77QnR90oziQJ2-aZzazO75j4-GzFtt3HWWy0DgMSPkjYDBsayo_7X9sfld1Vd-lzZZpCAt0LqsszioocGeOThGN4FFY7vCPjbB5kUJciLoHKq5X4Oc5wKGvZcgxLf6LWEqvOc/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+1.02.58+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="417" data-original-width="533" height="499" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5WcLtbb77QnR90oziQJ2-aZzazO75j4-GzFtt3HWWy0DgMSPkjYDBsayo_7X9sfld1Vd-lzZZpCAt0LqsszioocGeOThGN4FFY7vCPjbB5kUJciLoHKq5X4Oc5wKGvZcgxLf6LWEqvOc/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+1.02.58+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Florida's West Coast observed the most unusual storm surge patterns, as Irma moved from south to north, approximately following a shore-parallel track. Due to counterclockwise winds around hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere, substantial "negative" storm surges, when water is pushed away from the coast, occur when hurricanes take shore-parallel tracks and have a large body of water to the left of their forward path.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This occurs because prolonged winds of increasing intensity blow offshore along the coast, while the storm cannot draw any new water to replace the displaced water because strong winds are blowing offshore.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Numerous images of extensive mudflats emerged on Sunday afternoon in places like Tampa Bay. In some cases, humans were able to rescue marine animals, like dolphins and manatee, that were stranded by the receding water.</span></div>
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<a href="http://people.com/pets/floridians-come-together-to-save-manatees-stranded-in-mud-by-hurricane-irma/" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="1284" data-original-width="1600" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8DGz5M8szcYqB7ViOipj0jmA7uWum3QjFCDD9B1YUNYHW8K6o38BY-37Z1oxX2wfmIfEbEEnsPMJ3CNDn6PvuCapG_G8tvb9B2-QDlOQkJBpV0CiyVDCpaX3apz22hIdJpN-X6lqJHbY/s640/SECHLER.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Marine animals, like manatee, became stranded as Irma pushed water away from Florida's west coast on Sunday, producing negative storm surges. Image: Michael Sechler/ Facebook.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">People should use caution in such situations, as rapid changes in wind direction as the eye approaches, can lead to the water rushing back into the bay, along with additional water from an onshore storm surge.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The hydrograph below shows a "negative" storm surge of approximately 5.3 ft was observed at Old Port Tampa on Sunday afternoon, followed by rapid water level rises leading to a storm surge that exceeded 3 ft by Monday. Loss of data near the peak "negative" storm surge may indicate that the water level was too low for the gauge to record.</span></div>
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<a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8726607&units=standard&bdate=20170908&edate=20170912&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MSL&interval=6&action=" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="451" data-original-width="1141" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6Cg1661IS3KhyphenhyphenvT8y_YYrQixLV9lCMXRUcspIi7Da391OJHRSywdrVg4DI3C66jaGQwdWt_Lt7tsNtvcUr-LP-vnE2OxLkypUOBzjJERPRp9tdFCDMfCndGG0nFf6LXNCzfJQZH3qq08/s640/TAMPA_LOW.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Hydrograph for Old Port Tampa depicts a substantial "negative" storm surge followed by a "positive" storm surge. Red = observed water level, blue = normal astronomical tide, and the difference is the storm surge.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Negative storm surges of this magnitude are somewhat rare but not unprecedented. The <a href="http://www.u-surge.net/" target="_blank">U-Surge Project</a>, which provides more than 9,000 storm surge observations for the United States since 1880, places Irma's negative storm surge at Old Port Tampa in the top-5 all-time recorded negative storm surges. Three of the top five events occurred at Tampa.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Notable "Negative" Surges in the U-Surge Database</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Year Storm Name Water Level (ft) Datum Location</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1926 Great Miami -10.30 MSL Mobile, AL</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1910 Unnamed -8.00 Unknown Tampa, FL</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1926 Great Miami -6.00 MLT Tampa, FL</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">1943 Unnamed -5.70 NAT Galveston, TX</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">2017 Irma -5.32 NAT Old Port Tampa</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Datums: MSL = Mean Sea Level; MLT = Mean Low Tide; NAT = Normal Astronomical Tide</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 generated the most extreme negative storm surge level on record, as the storm took a shore-parallel track along the northern Gulf coast, which generated powerful offshore winds near Mobile, Alabama, reducing water levels in Mobile Bay by more than 10 feet. This storm did not take a shore-parallel track along Florida's west coast, but Tampa stayed north of the storm's track, enabling powerful offshore winds to persist through the most intense part of the storm.</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1926/7/track.gif" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="247" data-original-width="408" height="385" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic0sMYnelcfD_Fu5Lh2WOLFDDJX8CtUtws-uitfvPWhuskczYqCjqUincMBIRWmUR6vo1phXLl9fCP6YahQhAxHpFfIIJ345RIxIjXe-hOrpWNspZDSUIibBmU0-xuy3puyoRYCzb296s/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+1.50.45+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>The Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, generated a "negative" storm surge of 10.30 ft at Mobile, Alabama, and 6.0 ft at Tampa. Powerful offshore winds pushed water away from the coast in both cases. </i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Although negative storm surges may seem benign, and appear harmless compared to positive storm surges, such events can have negative impacts as well. Rapid water loss in marinas can leave fiberglass boats on hard surfaces as powerful winds push them around. Of greater impact to the general public would be loss of water for critical cooling processes at large facilities, like power plants. Given the susceptibility of negative storm surges at Tampa, local planners and utility operators should review potential impacts from negative surges in the region.</span></div>
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<a href="https://twitter.com/jacobsoboroff" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="1419" height="384" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLiimrH8I1FmcesNLW5aNKgqmC-J-yCapEk7XOkpmg2fVJ1-aLHwz25Zk8vylgLfuwzaIiY5Rg8hxXVS0hO70gC_DgituWXuRrlXUav6H228KqgdmO_HuNdCPTmEr9xU05mse84DVIVs4/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+2.29.29+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Storm surge flooding was evident in Everglades City during reconnaissance on Mon Sep 11.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Storm surge levels in southwest Florida, near Naples and Fort Myers, are not as severe as forecast, as Irma tracked farther inland than feared on Sunday morning.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Nonetheless, the eye remained offshore while passing the community of Everglades City, and reports are just surfacing about extensive storm surge flooding in this region. Everglades City likely observed the highest storm surge level on Florida's west coast.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-large;"><b>Southeast Florida</b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6J8_M55bHraktsbxAIh33bud7vlHaUg2UeR6ifudEzNMR2gsQ3iGlfsLDJOkJXJMRMUQOG7GCSRyyGRscmF1DgTThOs8QhWcHzT8Ko2X_zcTk7HWfLKheIv0s7JPtNUp1jp5OBSddYwk/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+1.03.31+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="552" height="547" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6J8_M55bHraktsbxAIh33bud7vlHaUg2UeR6ifudEzNMR2gsQ3iGlfsLDJOkJXJMRMUQOG7GCSRyyGRscmF1DgTThOs8QhWcHzT8Ko2X_zcTk7HWfLKheIv0s7JPtNUp1jp5OBSddYwk/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+1.03.31+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Southeast Florida remained on Irma's "strong side" from Friday through much of Sunday, enabling storm surge to gradually increase over a several day period. At Virginia Key, near Miami, storm surge levels unfortunately peaked around midday Sunday, near the time of high tide. This enabled the <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8723214" target="_blank">NOAA tide gauge at this site</a> to report a maximum storm tide (storm surge + tide) level of 3.88 ft above NAVD88 datum.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.u-surge.net/miami.html" target="_blank">The U-Surge Project launched a Miami website</a> as Irma approached, enabling us to compare Irma's maximum water level with 27 observed events since 1880. Irma's storm tide ranked 10th all-time and was the highest reported saltwater level since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. This water level was high enough to flood much of Miami's financial district with flood water on Sunday. </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAyIF_KLRaX0CsO2VTXjbTsqosTF-p0FK6y-OKZf5gjl5mdIN54_PTz_ppAUhNkeMOPaiKyodPKRuIufJOFhwtpM-l6A6kHqo2Vpf9OEGaeuIAUm4pZRfxz_1EXZeaVdJupP89zMWVzG4/s1600/MIAMI_TS.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="620" data-original-width="915" height="432" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAyIF_KLRaX0CsO2VTXjbTsqosTF-p0FK6y-OKZf5gjl5mdIN54_PTz_ppAUhNkeMOPaiKyodPKRuIufJOFhwtpM-l6A6kHqo2Vpf9OEGaeuIAUm4pZRfxz_1EXZeaVdJupP89zMWVzG4/s640/MIAMI_TS.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Time series of observed storm tide events at Miami, Florida, from 1880-2017 (138 years). Irma's storm tide ranked 10th all-time and highest since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. </i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large; text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/11/us/storm-surge-irma-flooding.html" target="_blank">Approximately 10-12 inches of sea-level rise in the Miami area over the past century enabled Irma to flood thousands of additional properties</a>, even though the peak storm surge remained around 4 feet. </span><span style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: large;">In fact, if Irma hit one century ago, the maximum storm tide in Miami would have been around 2.88 ft, which would have ranked it 12th all-time (instead of 10th), as total water levels would have been lower than the storm tides from Hurricane Donna (1960) at 3.74 ft and Hurricane King (1950) at 3.67 ft.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>NE Florida, Georgia, South Carolina</b></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmhPVjUEMsiqSXIqu5iH8py_G48ALWeh7URhJWJLjJZqlBHN2rK4TzKBiXhCK3MOtT7-OqJd4Nj-zNHRq_TZC5vzIpQ0PRLEyXyyrI0SDikmyTpxE_fmBnBtjlLhKWuwYVn8GNFffjw6w/s1600/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+1.04.08+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="442" data-original-width="576" height="489" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmhPVjUEMsiqSXIqu5iH8py_G48ALWeh7URhJWJLjJZqlBHN2rK4TzKBiXhCK3MOtT7-OqJd4Nj-zNHRq_TZC5vzIpQ0PRLEyXyyrI0SDikmyTpxE_fmBnBtjlLhKWuwYVn8GNFffjw6w/s640/Screen+Shot+2017-09-12+at+1.04.08+AM.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">As of Tuesday morning, Irma's highest credible storm surge observations have been reported from northeast Florida through South Carolina, including the Georgia Coast. Fernandina Beach, Florida, near the Georgia border, leads the pack with a 7.48-ft storm surge observation.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Due to high tidal ranges in this region, storm surge observations only tell part of the story. The worst flood impacts usually occur near the time of high tide.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">As this region stayed on Irma's "strong" side throughout the entire event, a prolonged storm surge in this region ensured moderate storm surge levels would persist through multiple high-tide cycles.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Although storm surge levels at Fort Pulaski, Georgia, near Savannah, peaked at more than 5 feet near the time of low tide, before dawn on Monday, persistent onshore winds kept storm surge levels elevated through the day. Astronomical tide levels rose faster than storm surge retreated on Monday morning, enabling peak water levels to exceed 12 ft above Mean Lower Low Water, which generated the second-highest water level on record at the gauge in an 82-year period, barely missing the maximum level set last October by Hurricane Matthew, according to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/jillgambill?ref=br_rs" target="_blank">Jill Gambill</a>, with <a href="https://www.facebook.com/marex.gaseagrant/" target="_blank">Georgia Sea Grant</a>.</span></div>
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<a href="http://www.wtoc.com/" target="_blank"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3BGKI8BzCn4o7Kwp674EEfJivG_Zkr1E5WA9eCTBEc17aSAn0tB5aBYSxKARNiefkuR-Ho27zfiUTVkLM1Db5bX-rDRf3EDxZHkB8n-S2MQ4D2f1iZoJeJS7kwUk_OQGDw7xXcTqr-6U/s640/SAV2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>The Savannah River reached extreme levels on Monday, overflowing its banks and inundating portions of downtown Savannah. </i></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">On their <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-brings-record-flooding-jacksonville-cuts-power-more-5-million" target="_blank">Category 6 blog post yesterday evening, Jeff Masters and Bob Henson</a> provided excellent insights on storm surge observations in Georgia and northeast Florida, including a record water-level set in Jacksonville. Irma's persistent storm surge, heavy rainfall runoff and high astronomical tides converged in this region to provide widespread flooding on Monday.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Both Jacksonville and Savannah were victims of compound flooding, when prolonged onshore winds elevate storm surge levels for multiple high tide cycles and impede the drainage of heavy inland rainfalls.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">This is my last update on Hurricane Irma's storm surge. Feel free to contact me with questions or interview requests at: hal@marineweatherandclimate.com.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Let's hope the Gulf Coast and Southeast States can dry out in the next couple of weeks and that Hurricane Jose stays out to sea!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">Take care and stay safe, everyone!</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">-Hal</span></div>
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Hurricane Halhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12553102291065440914noreply@blogger.com5