Peak of Hurricane Season Arrives as We Watch Three Systems for Development

Here we are at September 10th, the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season. Climate records indicate that nearly one named storm exists per year at this time on the calendar. Another way to look at this statistic is that in 100 years of climate records, we would expect nearly 100 named storms to have existed around this date.

This graph shows the frequency of hurricanes and tropical storms over 100 years. Source: NOAA

The graphic above shows the number of named storms per 100 years and depicts a strong seasonal influence on hurricane activity, with the busiest period of Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm activity occurring from mid-August to mid-October. A strong peak is visible around September 10.

So we shouldn't be surprised that we are watching three areas of disturbed weather for potential tropical development over the next five days. 

National Hurricane Center map of potential tropical development over the next five days.

Text added by Hal Needham.

The area of greatest concern is centered north of Hispaniola. This system is forecast to move to the west-northwest and approach the Bahamas/ Florida and then move into the Gulf of Mexico. Although development of this system into a named storm is unlikely over the next several days, the National Hurricane Center forecasts a 30% chance of development in the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.

Regardless of development into a named storm, this system has ample moisture and should bring heavy rain to the Gulf Coast over the weekend. NOAA's Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) provides rainfall estimates that could exceed three inches from the Bahamas through the Northern Gulf Coast, including areas near the Florida Peninsula, over the next seven days.

NOAA's QPF map forecasts 3+ inches of rain could fall near the Northern Gulf Coast over the next seven days. Link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1568119485

Stay tuned for more updates as we track this system.