Hurricane Dorian Threatens A Stretch of Florida Coast that Has Been "Lucky" For Decades

BIG PICTURE

Hurricane Dorian has survived its trek through the mountainous Caribbean Islands and now threatens to bring major wind and storm surge impacts to the Bahamas and U.S. mainland. It threatens to strike a stretch of Florida Coast that has been "lucky" for decades, and could inflict substantial storm surge flooding from South Florida through South Carolina, depending on the exact track.

IN DETAIL

Dorian strengthened into a hurricane this afternoon, as it tracked near the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, east of Puerto Rico. The system should enter a more favorable development for intensification over the next several days, as it passes over warm ocean water, in a moist environment with relatively low wind shear.

Infrared satellite imagery on Tue Aug 28 shows explosive growth in Hurricane Dorian over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

Some uncertainty in the track still remains, but the National Hurricane Center forecasts the northwest track to turn more towards the west beginning Friday, as a building ridge over the Atlantic guides the storm closer to the U.S. coast.

Given the favorable environment for development, Dorian is now forecast to become a major hurricane and then track over or north of the Bahamas. The entire Atlantic Coast of Florida is still in the "cone of uncertainty" but this range of landfall locations should become smaller in upcoming forecasts.

The National Hurricane Center forecasts Dorian to approach the U.S. coastline as a major hurricane later this weekend and Labor Day.

The National Hurricane Center's best-track forecast right now is for Dorian to strike the central Florida coast as a major (wind category 3+) hurricane. If this forecast verifies, Dorian would fill in a "gap" in Florida's hurricane climatology, as climate records since 1851 provide no major hurricanes that made direct landfall on Florida's Atlantic Coast south of St. Augustine and north of Port St. Lucie. This includes the entire Space Coast region and Daytona Beach area.

Since records began in 1851, no major (cat 3+) hurricanes have made direct landfall south of St. Augustine and north of Port St. Lucie, Florida. Base map: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks Tool.

The map above shows all major hurricanes that tracked within 100 nautical miles of Titusville, on the Space Coast. Since 1851, 10 hurricanes have met this criteria. Of these storms, five made direct landfall on the Atlantic Coast. Hurricane Dora (1964) struck in the northern part of the circle, near St. Augustine, and then a cluster of four hurricanes struck from around Delray Beach through Port St. Lucie. Hurricane Jeanne (2004) is the farthest north of these four clustered storms.

More recently, the eye of Hurricane Matthew (2016) tracked parallel to the coast. Although the eye  remained offshore, and did not make a Florida landfall, the storm's angry waves and storm surge ate away at the coastline and plunged numerous houses into the ocean. A direct strike from a major hurricane would inflict more severe impacts than that.

Debris from Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Although the storm did not make landfall in Florida, it tracked close enough to the coastline to inflict severe flood and erosion damage from storm surge and massive waves.


The updated Hazard Area Likelihood (HAL) Index for Hurricane Dorian, forecasts the likelihood of substantial impacts from wind and storm surge as PROBABLE (orange) and impacts from heavy rain as POSSIBLE (yellow).

The Hazard Area Likelihood (HAL) Index now forecasts the likelihood of substantial impacts from wind and storm surge as probable, and from heavy rain as possible.

In the upcoming days, I will update my blog regularly with the latest forecasts. I will also provide history about past flood events in the region and how Dorian may compare to hurricanes like Dora (1964), Jeanne (2004) and Matthew (2016).

I will especially provide insights into storm surge flood potential. Keep in mind that the stretch of coastline from northeast Florida through South Carolina, including the entire coastline of Georgia, very efficiently enhances storm surge flooding, and this entire region could experience storm surge flooding even if Dorian makes landfall on the Central Florida coast.

As Dorian is still centered in the Caribbean, noticeable shifts in the storm's track can be expected. All interests from extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys, through South Carolina, including all of Georgia and eastern Florida, should monitor trusted news and weather sources in the upcoming days.