NHC Shifts Track East - Debby Likely a Florida Storm

The National Hurricane Center shifted the forecast track for Hurricane Debby farther to the east. The present forecast takes the center of circulation nearly due north- towards Panama City, FL, although uncertainty regarding track and intensity still exists.

Former tropical cyclones that have followed a similar track have produced peak surge levels near Apalachee Bay south to around Cedar Key. High water levels in these storms often are observed near Tampa Bay/ Clearwater as well.

It's hard to find a tropical storm that tracked so slowly north in this area. Tropical Storm Alberto, however, did take a somewhat similar track at a slow pace, however, in 2006.

 

Tropical Storm Alberto track map. Source: Unisys Corporation

Surge info for Alberto:

Peak surge was approximately 6 feet in Homosassa, FL according the Source 1 description below:

Source 1:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL012006_Alberto.pdf

Quote:

Numerous houses received flood damage as two feet of water covered the road to downtown in Levy County, FL. Storm surge flooding near Homosassa, Citrus County put 3 ft of water into a restaurant and damaged 20 homes.

Source 2:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/mwreviews/2006.pdf

Surge Info:

Table 2 provides storm surge levels above normal astromical tides. The highest water level in Cedar Key was 4.27 feet, while a high water level of 4.92 feet was reported in Dixie County.

According to NOAA Tides and Currents, water levels at Cedar Key have been as high as 3.77 feet above normal this evening.

Stay tuned to your favorite weather information outlets for updated forecasts on this storm, and check back to this blog in the morning and evening for information about Debby's surge and possibly some surge history that relates to this storm.