Saturday, August 25, 2012

Keep an eye out, Louisiana and Mississippi

A note to our friends in Louisiana and Mississippi. Keep an eye out for Isaac. The official NHC statement forecasts Isaac to most likely approach the FL Panhandle or Big Bend area, although the latest discussion indicates some uncertainty in the track. Some models are predicting a westward jog in the track as Isaac approaches the Gulf of Mexico, and models differ on the timing and duration of this westward turn, if it even occurs.

Some credible models, like the GFS model, have come up with a more westward solution, forecasting Isaac to approach Louisiana or Mississippi. So stay tuned friends in the SCIPP (Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program) region. (The Gulf Coast region for SCIPP includes TX, LA, MS, and at this time any impacts on Texas look minimal.)

Also, our friends in SE Louisiana should remember that water tends to pile up here during a prolonged east wind, particularly in places east of the Mississippi River, like eastern portions of Plaquemines Parish, Breton Sound, St. Bernard Parish and small communities in that region, like Shell Beach, Delacroix, Hopedale, as well as Lake Borgne and Lake Pontchartrain. We have seen high water levels in these areas before, even if hurricanes pass to the east.

The "spaghetti models" show a wide range of solutions right now, as various models predict Isaac to track from Louisiana in the west to the Florida "Big Bend" area in the east.

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