Aloha everyone-
Today our focus shifts to the beautiful Hawaiian Islands. Rare back-to-back tropical cyclones will impact Hawaii over
the next several days. Hurricane Iselle is forecast to make landfall on the Big
Island as a hurricane this evening, while Hurricane Julio is forecast to track
north of the islands as a tropical storm on Sunday.
According to Jeff Masters’ Aug 6 blog on this topic (see http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2750),
Hawaii has only been hit by two direct hurricanes since 1949. The most
devastating was Hurricane Iniki in 1992, which made landfall on the island of
Kauai as a category-4 hurricane.
I wanted to share a little about Hawaii’s storm surge
history in this blog post. I also would like to provide a broader context of
the processes that produce other coastal hazards, like tsunamis and high waves
in the winter on the north shore of the islands.
Last year, I conducted a scientific literature search on
coastal flooding in Hawaii, and found evidence of 13 tropical cyclones that
have generated coastal floods in Hawaii since 1925. Hawaii stands out in the
storm surge literature, because large swells and waves often reach these
islands from both distant storms, and nearby tropical cyclones. However, for
several reasons, Hawaii’s surge levels tend to be modest, but wave heights can
be enormous. For this reason, high water events in Hawaii are most commonly
listed as “surf,” as in, “surf levels were 15-20 feet,” or, “25-foot surf
pounded the reef.”
The deep bathymetry, or offshore water depth, around the
Hawaiian islands, helps moderate storm surge levels, but actually enhances wave
heights. This is because displaced water and high waves approaching coastlines
“feel” the coast and start breaking before they actually reach land. In a
shallow offshore environment, like along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast,
bathymetry is shallow, therefore, waves often break offshore and sometimes
multiple times before reaching the coast. This process serves to dissipate wave
energy before it reaches shore.
However, the deep bathymetry off Hawaii’s coast enables wave
energy approaching the islands to remain mostly intact until waves are right
along the shore. In this process, very little energy is dissipated until the
waves break along the coastline. This, in part, explains why Hawaii observes
monster waves along the north shore in the winter months. The energy in these
waves comes from deep low pressure centers off the coast of Japan, Russia and
the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, and travels thousands of miles without striking
land. When the wave energy reaches Hawaii, we see enormous waves that draw
world-class surfers to the North Shore.
Hawaii's North Shore has world-famous waves that attracts surfers from around the world. Surf is highest in the winter, as swells produced by strong extratropical storms in the North Pacific travel thousands of miles to the shores of Hawaii. Photo: http://www.thesurfbum.com/travels/bansai-pipeline-north-shore-of-oahu/
At the end of last summer, I was in Hawaii and I spoke to a
lifeguard at Ke’e Beach (pronounced kay-ay) on Kauai’s north shore. The day we
were talking the first big set of swells was coming down from the north and
breaking hard on the reef. He told me that in the really big events, he has
seen 50-foot waves crashing on the reef! I will tell you that it’s one thing to
hear about big waves, but when you’re out there with a board, the power of the
ocean is truly impressive. I was out one day with around 8 foot waves and the
power is tremendous when they break on you!
Anyway….back to our hurricane history.
Due to deep bathymetry offshore, storm surge heights are
modest in Hawaii, but waves can be massive. The highest recorded surge height
in Hawaii in the SURGEDAT database is a 6-foot (1.83 m) surge near Poipu Beach,
on Kauai’s south shore. However, wave heights on the coast were near 30 feet
(9.14 m) during Iniki (U.S. Department of Commerce 1993).
Tsunamis have historically generated the highest total water
level runups in Hawaii. By wave runup, I mean the elevation to which the
maximum water, including waves, runs up on the land. On April 1, 1946, a
powerful earthquake in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands produced a Pacific-wide
tsunami that produced wave runup as high as 52.5 feet (16 m) (Lander and Lockridge 1989; Johnson and Satake
1997). The May, 23, 1960, Chilean earthquake, also generated a Pacific-wide
tsunami that generated a 35-foot (10.67 m) wave at Hilo, on the Big Island’s
north shore (Eaton et al. 1961).
People in Hilo, Hawaii, run to escape the 1946 tsunami. This event claimed 159 lives in Hawaii. Photo: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/itic_pr/The%20Great%20Waves/tsunami_great_waves_8.html
Wave runup from the 1946 tsunami in Hawaii reached as high as 52.5 ft (16 m). Note the man in the bottom-left corner of this photo. Photo: http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/transformations/tsunami/image1.html.
While both hurricanes and
tsunamis have caused considerable damage to Hawaii, the impact from tsunamis
has been more severe. The 1946 Aleutian Island Earthquake produced a massive
tsunami that killed 159 people (Lander and Lockridge 1989; Johnson and Satake
1997), making this the most deadly coastal flooding event in Hawaii’s history.
This tsunami inflicted $300 million of damage in Hilo, adjusted to 2011
dollars, and destroyed many waterfront buildings (Western States Seismic Policy
Council 2013). The tsunami from the 1960 Chilean earthquake killed inflicted
$20 million in damage and killed 61 people in Hawaii (Eaton et al. 1961). By
comparison, no deaths were officially reported from Iniki’s waves and storm
surge in 1992, however, coastal flooding destroyed 63 homes on Kauai’s South
Coast (Central Pacific Hurricane Center 1992).
Hurricane Iniki made a direct hit on Kauai in 1992. The storm inflicted catastrophic wind impacts, while surf as high as 30 ft (9.14 m) and storm surge as high as 6 ft (1.83) m, damaged 63 homes on Kauai's south shore, in places like Poipu Beach. Photo courtesy: Bruce Asato, found on Weather Underground post about Iniki. See: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Civicane49/remembering-hurricane-iniki
While many people are
focusing on how rare it is to have back-to-back tropical cyclones impact
Hawaii, another rare aspect of these storms is that they are approaching Hawaii
from the east. Historically, most hurricanes that have impacted Hawaii have
approached from the south. Storm tracks play a huge role in storm surge
development, especially in island locations, where one side of the island will
observe onshore winds and another side will observe offshore winds.
A unique aspect about Hurricane
Iselle, is that it is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity, until landfall
on Hawaii’s big island. Because winds around hurricanes circulate
counter-clockwise in the northern hemisphere, this means that strong onshore
winds could impact the north shore of several islands. Substantial coastal
flooding impacts are possible, therefore, in places like Hilo, as the harbor at
this location faces northeast. It is possible that Hilo will observe higher
water levels from Iselle than any previous cyclone. The highest surge level
found in SURGEDAT for Hilo is a 4-5 ft (1.22-1.52m) storm surge from Hurricane
Diana in 1972. Diana also produced 30-ft (9.14 m) surge along the Puna Coast of
the Big Island (Central Pacific Hurricane Center 1972).
While Hawaii will certainly
see wind and heavy rain impacts, some locations, especially along the east and
north shores, such as the city of Hilo, are under threat for coastal flooding
impacts. Also, keep in mind that on any side of any of the Hawaiian islands,
dangerous coastal conditions may occur. Hawaii is famous for very strong
currents, and persistent strong winds will displace water and create hazardous
coastal conditions.
I am always available for
follow-up questions and interviews related to storm surge. Feel free to send me
an email at hal”at”srcc.lsu.edu.
On a personal note, I
(finally) graduate with my Ph.D. tomorrow, so this is an exciting week for me.
I have been working full time for LSU while working on a Ph.D., and will continue
on at LSU, so don’t worry about the blog disappearing anytime soon.
Mahalo,
Hurricane Hal
REFERENCES
Central Pacific Hurricane
Center, 1972: The Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season of 1972. National
Weather Service – Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Honolulu, Hawaii. Available
on the Web at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1972.php.
Central Pacific Hurricane
Center, 1992: The 1992 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season. National
Weather Service- Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Honolulu, Hawaii. Available
on the Web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/1992.php.
Eaton, J.P., D.H. Richter,
and W.U. Ault, 1961: The tsunami of May 23, 1960, on the Island of Hawaii. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of
America, 61, 2, 135-157.
Lander,
J.F., and P.A. Lockridge, 1989: United States Tsunamis (Including United States
Possessions) 1690-1988, 265
pp., National Geophysical Data Center, Boulder, Colorado, 1989.
Johnson,
J.M., and K. Satake, 1997 : Estimation of seismic moment and slip
distribution of the April 1, 1946, Aleutian tsunami earthquake. Journal of Geophysical Research, 102,
B6, 11,765-11,774.
U.S. Department of Commerce,
1993: Natural Disaster Survey Report,
Hurricane Iniki, September 6-13, 1992. Report available online at: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/iniki/iniki1.pdf.
Western States Seismic Policy
Council, 2013: 1946 Aleutians Tsunami. Available on the Web at: www.wsspc.org/resources-reports/tsunami-center/significant-tsunami-events/1946-aleutians-tsunami/.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI look forward to seeing your opinion of the wave vs surge damage at Hilo once the storm is past.
ReplyDelete