Harvey "Round 3" Starts Today

HURRICANE HARVEY UPDATE

MON AUG 28 630AM CENTRAL TIME
Main Point: Harvey “Phase 3” Starts today!

Perspective:

Phase 1: Fri Aug 25: Extreme wind damage near Rockport and moderate storm surge along Central TX coast;

Phase 2: Sat Aug 26-Sun Aug 27: Extreme, persistent rainfall causes catastrophic flooding, particularly in metro Houston and along I-45 corridor SE of Houston;

Phase 3: Mon Aug 28-Tue Aug 29: Strong winds build in metro Houston, I-45 corridor SE of Houston, Galveston area and Houston-Beaumont corridor. Banding of extreme rainfall rates and isolated tornadoes shifts east to Beaumont-Lafayette corridor

Timing:
Developing Monday morning through Tuesday night

Hazards:
-Strong winds developing in Houston-Galveston corridor, Galveston Island, Bolivar Peninsula Houston-Beaumont corridor;

-Persistent, moderate rain, with isolated downpours in metro Houston and I-45 corridor SE of Houston

-Heavy banding/ training of rain, with embedded tornadoes, shifts east to Beaumont/ Port Arthur through Lafayette, LA

-Storm surge levels build in Galveston/ Galveston Bay, Bolivar Peninsula, to Cameron, LA. Not expecting a huge surge, but water levels could be 2-4 feet above normal. This will impede the runoff of torrential rains.

-Massive runoff of torrential rainfall will keep bayous/ creeks/ rivers rising...rain has stopped in Conroe-Liberty region, but torrential rain to north will drain through this area and rapidly rise creeks, bayous and rivers

Impacts:
-Widespread power outages for Houston/ Galveston corridor, east through Beaumont/ Port Arthur. This includes Galveston Island, which has not experienced the most severe impacts of this storm yet;
-Widespread wind damage for Houston/ Galveston corridor, east through Beaumont/ Port Arthur. Nothing like the damage to Rockport area from hurricane-force winds. The winds from Harvey over next two days may exceed 40mph sustained with gusts to 60mph;

-Expect considerable tree falls in Houston-Galveston corridor and Houston-Beaumont corridor, as trees are now rooted in soggy soil and have been stressed for days;

-Expect scattered roof damage and collapse of less sturdy construction, like carports and awnings over gas station pumps...some flying debris possible;

-Very rapid flash flooding from new squall lines, especially from Beaumont/ Port Arthur east through Lafayette

Take Action:

-Prepare to lose power, particularly in Houston-Galveston and Houston- Beaumont corridors, including Galveston Island;

-Expect power could be out for at least several days, as many places are cut off (including Galveston Island) and power crews cannot access them;

-Expect tree falls in this same region. Watch your proximity to large trees and branches- if possible stay "upwind" from large trees;

-Have a flashlight and, if possible, battery-powered radio near you;

-From Beaumont/ Port Arthur through Lafayette, LA keep an eye on squall lines and prepare for isolated tornadoes.

Stay safe everyone....hazardous weather will continue in the region until at least Tuesday night!

-Hurricane Hal
hal@marineweatherandclimate.com