Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Tropical Storm Nicole
Tropical Storm Nicole formed this morning, and is moving quickly to the NNE. The system already crossed Cuba and is forecast to continue tracking NE, between Florida and the Bahamas. This weak tropical system should pass east of the Florida Keys.
The Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) identified 17 storm surges that produced peak surge levels in the Florida Keys between 1880 and 2009. Fortunately, Nicole resembles none of these past events. This is likely because Nicole's track and intensity will make it very difficult for the system to generate a 4-foot or greater surge in the Florida Keys. The surge events that SCIPP identified all were at least 4-feet high.
Look for breezy conditions with occasional squalls in the Florida Keys throughout the day. Winds may increase suddenly in squalls, accompanied by heavy rain. Surge levels should remain small, less than 2 feet, however, waters may be choppy.