Potential for Heavy Rainfall Flooding Increasing for Northern Gulf Coast/ Southern Mississippi Valley

The potential for heavy rainfall flooding is increasing for the Northern Gulf Coast and Southern Mississippi Valley later this weekend and early next week.

An area of disturbed weather north of Hispaniola is forecast to track to the west-northwest and approach Florida. The National Hurricane Center gives a 60% chance of tropical storm development in the next five days, particularly over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The major hazard associated with this system will be prolonged heavy rainfall. The Euro model predicts this system will slow down considerably as the storm center tracks over the Florida Panhandle and Alabama, while the GFS predicts an extended stall as the system is centered near coastal Louisiana.

Both of these scenarios would spread torrential rain over multiple states for a prolonged period. Locations from Louisiana through Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, including Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee should closely monitor this system.

Keep in mind that a storm becomes "named" based on one metric alone- that maximum sustained winds reach 39 miles per hour. (The system must also have closed circulation and be tropical in nature). But the presence of a name tells us nothing about flood potential. Even if this storm remains unnamed, it has the potential to inflict widespread flooding, especially along the northern Gulf Coast.

Just three years ago an "unnamed" storm stalled in this region of the country and dumped more than 30 inches of rain in southeast Louisiana. We will continue to monitor this system for future development.